Forecasts for USD to HUF
The outlook for the USD to HUF exchange rate indicates significant pressure on the US dollar, primarily due to ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical factors. Analysts note that the US dollar has recently been trading at 14-day lows near 355.3 HUF, about 2.8% lower than its 3-month average of 365.6 HUF. This decline reflects a broader sentiment of unease among USD investors, driven by stalled trade negotiations between the US and its major trading partners, including implications from recent tariffs announced by President Trump.
Market experts highlight that the US dollar's strength is being undermined by President Trump's trade policies, which include a sweeping tariff regime aimed at rectifying trade imbalances. This has raised concerns about the potential recession, spurring discussions around the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," a theory that suggests an intentional weakening of the dollar to enhance US competitiveness. As a safe-haven currency, the dollar typically performs well during times of uncertainty; however, current trade dynamics could erode this foundational strength.
The Hungarian forint, while recently benefiting from a stronger position due to a hawkish stance from its central bank, faces its own challenges. Local economic weaknesses and inflation concerns are anticipated to apply downward pressure on the HUF in the medium term. Forecasters suggest that while global factors could lend temporary support to the forint, domestic issues will likely drive the exchange rate higher, potentially pushing EUR/HUF beyond 410 in the latter half of the year.
As the USD to HUF exchange rate remains volatile within a 10% range from 353.7 to 388.9, currency analysts emphasize the need for close monitoring of economic indicators in both the US and Hungary. The upcoming S&P PMIs and employment data from the US are expected to play a critical role in shaping the dollar's trajectory, while any developments in Hungary's fiscal policies will influence the forint's performance. Looking ahead, investors are encouraged to stay alert to these evolving market conditions as they may significantly impact international transactions involving USD and HUF.
