The recent outlook for the USD to HUF exchange rate suggests continued weakness for the US dollar as markets anticipate aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Analysts indicate that the USD has been under pressure due to expectations for multiple rate cuts starting as early as mid-2026, leading to a decrease in the dollar's relative yield advantage. Despite mixed economic data from the US, with a resilient labor market countering signs of slowing growth, market sentiment remains bearish for the dollar.
As of early December 2025, the USD is trading at 328.8 HUF, which is 1.3% below its three-month average of 333.1. Exchange rates have shown stability, fluctuating within a 3.7% range, reflecting investors' cautious stance on the dollar's near-term prospects. Analysts point out that the impending consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan may offer some temporary support, but the broader trend appears to favor a weaker USD given the diminishing haven demand and improved risk sentiment globally.
In contrast, the Hungarian forint has experienced a boost from recent developments, particularly the financial shield agreement with the United States that offers economic protection and supports Hungary's public finances. This agreement is seen as vital amid ongoing challenges related to EU funding freezes. The National Bank of Hungary’s decision to maintain its key policy rate at 6.5% reflects a commitment to monetary stability, which is expected to underpin the forint's performance.
Overall, the USD/HUF exchange rate is likely to remain sensitive to developments in US monetary policy and Hungary's economic agreements. Analysts suggest a range-bound environment for the USD against the HUF unless significant economic indicators or geopolitical developments emerge. The medium-term outlook indicates potential headwinds for the dollar, while the forint could gain from external support and domestic monetary policy stances.
