Recent forecasts for the USD to HUF exchange rate indicate a complex interplay of factors driving both currencies. The US dollar has gained strength following a positive uptick in US GDP and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which opted to keep interest rates stable while signaling a cautious approach to future policy adjustments. Analysts note that if the core PCE price index data supports the Fed's inflation outlook, further gains for the dollar may ensue, potentially elevating the exchange rate beyond current levels.
Conversely, the Hungarian forint faces headwinds from both global events and local economic conditions. Despite a recent strengthening attributed to the National Bank of Hungary's hawkish position after leadership changes, the HUF is pressured by the country's weak economic fundamentals, persistent inflation, and looming fiscal risks. Experts suggest that while geopolitical factors may provide temporary support, the outlook for the HUF remains uncertain, with projections indicating a possible rise in the EUR/HUF exchange rate to exceed 410 later this year.
Currently, the USD to HUF rate sits at approximately 350.1, consistent with its three-month average but impacted by notable volatility, trading within an 8.3% range from 337.2 to 365.1. Given the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency during times of global uncertainty and volatile markets, it may continue to see upward pressure. Nonetheless, market participants should monitor developments such as U.S. economic performance and geopolitical tensions, which will be critical in determining the future trajectory of this exchange rate.