The recent performance of the US dollar (USD) against the Hungarian forint (HUF) has been influenced by a number of key factors. Analysts note that the USD has faced challenges amid a risk-positive market sentiment, leading to a slight depreciation. The dollar regained some strength during European trading hours, aided by a decline in initial jobless claims, but this recovery was restrained by a prevailing appetite for riskier assets.
Looking ahead, several significant elements may shape the USD’s trajectory. The expected release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Additionally, ongoing US-China trade negotiations and an evolving global landscape regarding dedollarization efforts further complicate the dollar's outlook. Economists are watching these dynamics closely, especially as sentiments around the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy evolve.
On the Hungarian side, the forint has shown resilience, bolstered by the National Bank of Hungary's (NBH) decision to maintain its base interest rate at 6.5%. This rate is the highest in the European Union and reflects worries over persistent inflation, which held steady at 4.2% in August. Analysts credit the forint’s appreciation against the Euro to improved inflation prospects and a stable current account surplus, bolstered by Hungary’s attractive interest rate.
Recent moves indicate that the forint reached an 18-month high against the Euro, trading at approximately 385 HUF per euro as of November 7, 2025. This strength may provide support to the forint against the USD, especially since the USD to HUF exchange rate currently stands at 329.1, below its three-month average of 333.7, and trading within a narrow range of 328.3 to 339.6.
Given these developments, markets remain cautious. Continued scrutiny of economic indicators from both the U.S. and Hungary will be essential for forecasting future exchange rate movements. The interplay of improving Hungarian economic metrics against a backdrop of fluctuating USD strengths will likely lead to a dynamic trading environment in the near term.
