The market bias for the USD to IDR exchange rate appears to be bearish in the near term.
Key drivers include the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could weaken the USD. Additionally, improving global growth and rising commodity prices may lead to increased volatility affecting the USD's strength. The Indonesian rupiah may find support from Bank Indonesia's interventions to stabilize its value and the government's plans to improve the currency's standing through repatriating foreign holdings.
Over the next 1 to 3 months, the USD to IDR is expected to trade within a relatively stable range, maintaining fluctuations similar to recent patterns.
Upside risk could come from stronger-than-expected US economic data, potentially halting the Fed's rate cuts. Conversely, a downside risk includes heightened geopolitical tensions in the region, which could negatively impact the IDR.