The recent forecasts for the USD to IDR exchange rate indicate a strengthening trend for the US dollar driven by a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Following a stronger than expected US GDP rebound, the dollar gained momentum, particularly after the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates with comments from Chair Jerome Powell that reinforced a positive outlook for the currency. Economists suggest that if upcoming inflation data continues to align with the Fed's stance, the USD could maintain its bullish trajectory.
In contrast, the Indonesian rupiah has faced significant downward pressure, recently falling to its historical low against the dollar, surpassing the previously recorded weakest point during the Asian Financial Crisis. Analysts cite global trade tensions, particularly the impact of tariff increases initiated by the US, as critical factors affecting the IDR's value. The rupiah's depreciation has been exacerbated by local market dynamics, including uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies under the current administration.
Market data reflects these trends, with the USD to IDR exchange rate reaching 30-day highs around 16,446, slightly above its three-month average. While the recent trading range has remained stable—oscillating between 16,159 and 16,699—experts warn that the combination of external pressures on the IDR and the Fed's robust policies could lead to further depreciation of the rupiah in the near term.
In summary, current forecasts suggest continued strength in the USD bolstered by the Fed's economic strategies, while the IDR appears vulnerable due to both global trade dynamics and domestic uncertainties. This interplay could influence international transactions for those involved in USD/IDR trades, with potential implications for costs and financial strategies.