The USD to IDR market currently shows a bearish bias.
Key drivers influencing this trend include:
- The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts, which may weaken the USD.
- Indonesia's proactive measures, including interventions by Bank Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah amidst global uncertainties.
- Expectations of lower inflation in Indonesia, supporting the rupiah against the USD.
In the near term, the USD to IDR exchange rate is anticipated to trade within a range slightly above recent averages, reflecting recent stability.
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the US, potentially boosting the USD. Conversely, a more aggressive depreciation of the rupiah could arise from geopolitical tensions or lack of effective monetary policies, driving the exchange rate lower.