USD/IDR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is just above its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rates, contrasting with Bank Indonesia’s interventions to stabilize the rupiah, creating a supportive environment for the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have remained stable, which helps mitigate impacts on the IDR, as Indonesia is an oil-importing nation.
• One macro factor: Easing tensions between the United States and Europe may facilitate a stronger rupiah, particularly after tariff threats were withdrawn.
Range: The USD/IDR is likely to hold within its recent range, trading steadily around its current level.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive shift in U.S. manufacturing data might bolster the dollar further.
• Downside risk: Any resurgence in geopolitical tensions could push the USD lower against the rupiah.
