USD/MYR Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is significantly below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by ongoing USD weakness.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's move towards interest rate cuts is weakening the USD compared to the MYR, which is underpinned by economic resilience.
- Risk/commodities: The recent rise in oil prices supports the MYR, as Malaysia benefits from its strong commodity exports and trade surplus.
- One macro factor: Malaysia's stable GDP growth forecast of over 5% continues to boost investor confidence in the MYR.
Range: The USD/MYR is likely to drift lower while testing recent lows within its range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprisingly positive US labor market report could bolster the USD.
- Downside risk: Continued strength in oil prices and further indications of a robust Malaysian economy could pressure the USD/MYR even lower.