Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as USD/MYR sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Fed is expected to begin easing in 2026, narrowing the US‑MYR rate gap.
- Risk/commodities: Oil sits near recent highs with notable volatility, a support factor for the MYR given Malaysia’s commodity exports.
- Macro factor: Upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data will shape Fed easing expectations and the dollar’s direction.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the recent three‑month range, with a bias toward testing the lower end if the dollar remains supported.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US jobs report that delays Fed easing could lift the dollar.
- Downside risk: Clear signs of US slowdown or faster-than-expected Fed cuts could weaken the dollar and lift the MYR.
