The current exchange rate for USD to PKR stands at approximately 281.3, slightly below its three-month average, having fluctuated within a stable range of 280.5 to 284.1. Recent analyses indicate that the USD is facing downward pressure as market sentiment leans towards expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, stimulated by lackluster employment data and a significant slowdown in retail sales. Economists note that should upcoming American economic indicators, such as durable goods orders and jobless claims, align with prevailing forecasts, further weakening of the USD could be anticipated.
Among the key factors creating headwinds for the USD, analysts highlight the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, with calls for a new chair who can adapt to changing economic responsibilities. Additionally, geopolitical developments, such as U.S.-China trade tensions and broader global dedollarization efforts, remain pivotal in influencing the currency's value.
Conversely, the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) is under dual influences of various internal and external factors. Despite a substantial 12% depreciation against the USD since January 2025, analysts suggest that record high remittances—projected at $38.3 billion in fiscal year 2024-25—and a recent IMF agreement have provided notable support to the PKR. Market sentiment shows a positive shift following these developments, promoting a slight appreciation for the rupee in conjunction with central bank interventions aimed at stabilizing the currency.
Overall, experts forecast that the volatility for both currencies will persist, with the PKR potentially declining to 100 PKR/USD by year-end if geopolitical tensions escalate further. Currency market participants are advised to stay informed about these evolving dynamics to optimize their international transactions.
