Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound: price sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate policy gap: The Fed is viewed to ease toward a neutral stance in 2026, while MAS keeps a looser stance, narrowing the USD-SGD gap and allowing SGD to track domestic gains.
Oil trends: Oil has shown volatility, which tends to amplify dollar moves; a firm oil path may lend mild support to the USD.
Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data will shape Fed easing bets and the dollar direction; if job gains slow, USD pressure may ease, letting SGD catch up.
Range: drift within the 3-month range, with occasional tests of the lower boundary near support.
What could change it:
Upside risk: A stronger US payrolls print and firmer Fed rhetoric could push the USD higher against SGD.
Downside risk: Clear signs of Fed rate cuts or softer US data could help SGD and push USD/SGD lower.
