Bias: Range-bound, as USD/SGD sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range, while Fed easing bets and MAS policy stance offset each other.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates toward neutral in 2026, while MAS has kept its policy stance steady, creating offsetting pressures on USD/SGD.
- Macro factor: Upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data will test Fed easing bets and help set USD momentum versus SGD.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tilt toward the lower end as the dollar remains constrained by mixed data and local policy factors.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger US payrolls report or hawish Fed commentary could push USD/SGD higher.
- Downside risk: Softer US data with renewed bets on Fed easing could push USD/SGD lower.
