USD/UAH Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady has supported the US Dollar against the hryvnia.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have remained stable recently, which limits significant volatility in the USD, affecting pricing in UAH.
• One macro factor: The European Union's financial aid has strengthened the resources of the National Bank of Ukraine, supporting the UAH's stability.
Range:
The USD/UAH is likely to hold within its current range, drifting slightly rather than testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected US jobless claims figure could bolster the USD further.
• Downside risk: Renewed geopolitical tensions or a significant depreciation of the UAH due to budget pressures could weaken the currency.
