The USD to UAH exchange rate is currently range-bound, showing signs of stability. Key drivers influencing this are:
- The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in mid-2026, which may weaken the USD.
- Projected growth in Ukraine's GDP of 4.5% for 2026, suggesting a positive outlook for the UAH.
- The UAH is expected to gradually depreciate, with forecasts suggesting it will trade between 43 and 45 UAH per USD in 2026.
In the near term, the exchange rate is anticipated to remain within a stable range around current levels. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected economic data from the U.S. that could support the dollar. Conversely, downside risks could arise from any unexpected geopolitical tensions affecting Ukraine or shifts in global sentiment that favor the dollar's strength.