USD/UAH Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady contrasts with the stability efforts of the National Bank of Ukraine, impacting USD demand.
• Risk/commodities: Recent safe-haven demand for the USD has been inconsistent, influenced by fluctuating geopolitical tensions and market reactions.
• One macro factor: The European Union's loan to Ukraine has strengthened the National Bank of Ukraine's reserves, enhancing the hryvnia’s stability.
Range:
Expect movement to hold within the recent range, as other factors may offset upward pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A more positive shift in US economic data could increase the demand for USD.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions may weigh on the USD's value, benefiting the UAH.
