The USD to UAH exchange rate has recently experienced significant fluctuations, closing at 41.16, marking a 90-day low and 1.1% below the three-month average of 41.63. Analysts highlight the stability of the pair, as it has traded within a narrow range of 1.7% from 41.16 to 41.88.
The recent drop in the US dollar’s value is primarily attributed to disappointing employment data, with the US adding only 73,000 jobs in July, far below the anticipated 110,000. This downturn in labor market performance has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates as early as September. If the Fed adopts a dovish stance, it could further weaken the dollar, influencing the USD to UAH exchange rate.
Looking ahead, upcoming data releases, specifically regarding US factory orders, are expected to exert additional pressure on the dollar. Economists predict a marked decline in order growth for June, further exacerbating concerns about economic momentum and the Fed's interest rate policy.
The USD's role as a global reserve currency reinforces its influence over international transactions, including those involving the Ukrainian hryvnia. Though the dollar benefits from its safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, any sign of economic slowdowns in the US could lead to a decline in the dollar's strength.
According to market experts, the future trajectory of the USD to UAH exchange rate must be monitored closely, given its reliance on forthcoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy decisions. Should the economic indicators continue to disappoint, the USD could remain under pressure, impacting its value relative to the hryvnia and potentially leading to continued volatility in the currency market.