The USD to UAH exchange rate is currently range-bound as it approaches recent highs. Key drivers include the expectation of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which may weaken the USD, and Ukraine's projected GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, which could support the UAH. Improving global growth and rising commodity prices are also significant, hinting at potential shifts in investor focus.
The near-term trading range for USD to UAH is expected to stay within a stable corridor, with fluctuations resembling past trends. Analysts anticipate the exchange rate might hover around current levels, with the possibility of gradual changes.
Potential upside risks include stronger-than-expected economic data from the U.S., which might bolster the USD. Conversely, any deterioration in the geopolitical situation in Ukraine could put additional pressure on the UAH, leading to downward adjustments in the exchange rate.