USD/ZAR Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates next year, while the South African Reserve Bank is pursuing a more accommodative policy.
• Risk/commodities: The price of Brent Crude oil is currently at 90-day highs, which could support the rand, given South Africa's reliance on commodity exports.
• One macro factor: The South African rand has appreciated significantly, supported by improving economic fundamentals and strong demand for rand-denominated bonds.
Range: The USD/ZAR is likely to drift within the recent range, given its current position near the lows.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A rebound in the US economy could shift focus back to the dollar.
• Downside risk: Continued strength in commodity prices and a stable ZAR inflation outlook could further drive the rand upward.