The USD/ZAR exchange rate is currently bearish, trading near 90-day lows around 16.57, which is significantly below its 3-month average of 17.1.
Key drivers include the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may weaken the USD as early as mid-2026. On the other hand, a projected economic growth of 1.4% for South Africa in 2026, supported by better electricity supply, could bolster the ZAR. Additionally, the South African Reserve Bank’s easing monetary policy aims to keep inflation in check, which may enhance ZAR strength.
In the near-term, the USD/ZAR is likely to trade within a tight range, reflecting current price stability. Upside risks could come from unexpected improvements in global economic conditions, while downside risks may arise from further USD selling pressure and a downturn in global commodity prices, particularly oil, which has seen volatility recently.