The USD/ZAR exchange rate is currently bearish, with ongoing pressures on the U.S. dollar.
Key drivers include:
- The Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in 2026, which may weaken the dollar as higher interest rates usually bolster a currency's value.
- South Africa's projected economic growth of 1.4% in 2026, supported by improved infrastructure and electricity availability, could favor the rand.
- A new inflation target set by South African authorities aims to keep inflation in check, which can reassure investors and positively affect the rand's strength.
In the near term, the USD/ZAR rate is likely to remain within a stable range reflecting current levels.
An upside risk could emerge if unexpected U.S. economic data boosts confidence in the dollar, whereas a downside risk lies in further easing of South Africa's monetary policy, which could weaken the rand.