The USD to ZAR exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Interest rate differentials play a key role, with the South African Reserve Bank recently easing its repo rate to 6.75%, while the Federal Reserve is expected to implement future rate cuts, which may weaken the USD. Enhanced economic growth forecasts for South Africa suggest a 1.4% increase in 2026, supported by better infrastructure and electricity availability, contributing positively to the ZAR.
In the near term, fluctuations are likely to stay within a stable range, potentially between the current level and recent trading highs. Upside risks for the ZAR could arise from further international commodity price increases, while downside risks may stem from localized economic challenges impacting South Africa’s growth.
Overall, current USD/ZAR levels are about 3.2% lower than the recent 3-month average, indicating relative strength for the ZAR, particularly as oil prices are holding steady near recent highs, which could additionally support the ZAR going forward.