The USD to ZAR exchange rate currently has a bearish bias. Recent forecasts highlight several key drivers influencing this outlook. Firstly, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement more interest rate cuts, which could weaken the USD. Additionally, South Africa’s economy is projected to grow, supported by better electricity availability and infrastructure improvements, making the ZAR more appealing. Finally, the SARB's recent repo rate cut reflects a trend towards monetary easing, impacting the ZAR positively.
In the near term, the USDZAR is likely to trade within a range reflecting recent lows near 16.56, well below its 3-month average. An upside risk for the ZAR may arise from higher commodity prices generally boosting the economy, while a downside risk could stem from increased global risk aversion affecting demand for emerging market currencies like the ZAR.