The market bias for USD to ZAR is currently bearish.
Key drivers for this movement include:
- The expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may weaken the USD as it seeks to support economic growth.
- South Africa's projected economic growth of 1.4% and a new inflation target set at 3% may bolster the ZAR, enhancing its appeal.
- The South African Reserve Bank's recent rate cut suggests further easing, which could strengthen the rand against the dollar.
In the near term, USD to ZAR may trade within a stable range as the rand strengthens, influenced by domestic reforms and U.S. monetary policy adjustments.
An upside risk could arise from unexpected strength in the USD if U.S. economic data outperforms, while a downside risk includes a decline in oil prices that could further impact the rand's performance, as recent oil movements show prices at 14-day lows.