USD/ZAR Outlook:
Bearish, as the USD is below its 90-day average and near recent lows while facing pressure from various factors.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady contrasts with the South African Reserve Bank's high rates, which supports the ZAR.
• Risk/commodities: Strong global demand for commodities, particularly gold and platinum, has boosted the ZAR as these exports provide significant foreign earnings.
• One macro factor: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade issues have weakened the USD's position, making it less attractive to investors.
Range:
The USD/ZAR is likely to drift within its recent range, reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising recovery in USD strength could arise from improved economic data or shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
• Downside risk: Continued declines in USD value related to geopolitical tensions or further signs of economic weakness could amplify downward pressure.