USD/ZAR Outlook:
The USD/ZAR exchange rate is likely to decrease as it currently trades below its recent average and is near recent lows. This is primarily due to recent decreases in US economic growth, which can undermine the dollar's strength.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates contrasts with the South African Reserve Bank's recent cut, allowing the rand to hold its ground.
• Risk/commodities: Higher oil prices support the ZAR as South Africa relies on oil-import dynamics, making the rand more competitive against the USD.
• One macro factor: The South African government's efforts to improve public sector efficiency have lifted investor confidence, favoring the rand's performance.
Range:
USD/ZAR is expected to drift within its recent range, potentially testing lower levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve could bolster the USD.
• Downside risk: A prolonged decline in global commodity prices may weaken the ZAR.