Recent forecasts suggest that the USD/VND exchange rate is influenced by a combination of US economic developments and local factors affecting the Vietnamese Đồng. Analysts have noted a risk-averse environment that has supported the US dollar, particularly following the increase of tariffs on Indian goods, leading to a strengthen in safe-haven flows towards the USD. The mood in the market may change as upcoming economic indicators, such as the US GDP growth estimate and jobless claims, are released. Fluctuations in these metrics could have significant implications for the dollar's valuation, especially in the context of global economic uncertainties.
On the Vietnamese side, there are expectations of a 3% depreciation of the VND against the USD by the end of 2025, driven by a stronger dollar and global market conditions. Vietcombank Securities highlighted this outlook, prompting discussions about the long-term sustainability of the currency. In response to recent pressures, Vietnam's central bank has intervened in foreign exchange markets, selling off reserves to stabilize the VND, and there may be upcoming policy rate adjustments aimed at mitigating this depreciation.
Current data indicates that the USD is trading at 26,375 VND, just 0.8% above its three-month average. This relatively stable range, from 26,011 to 26,434 VND, reinforces the notion that the USD is experiencing constrained movement due to current market conditions. Experts suggest that the ongoing economic policy developments in both the US and Vietnam will play significant roles in shaping the future trajectory of the USD/VND exchange rate.
In conclusion, as forecasters analyze these economic dynamics, it will be beneficial for individuals and businesses involved in international transactions to stay informed and anticipate potential fluctuations in the USD/VND exchange rate.
