USD/VND Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts may lead to a weaker USD, while the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to stabilize the VND.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently below average, which can dampen Vietnamese exports, affecting VND stability.
• One macro factor: Upcoming legislative elections in Vietnam may introduce policy changes that influence the VND.
Range:
Expect the USD/VND to hold within the recent range, as current factors do not favor strong movements in either direction.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report could strengthen the USD against the VND.
• Downside risk: Increased geopolitical tensions affecting trade relations could further weaken the USD.