The USD to VND exchange rate is currently experiencing fluctuations, influenced by a combination of U.S. monetary policy and Vietnamese currency dynamics. Recently, the US dollar has shown a notable appreciation, driven by a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Following a rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments indicated that further cuts are not assured, suggesting potential support for the USD in the near term. Analysts expect that ongoing speeches from Fed officials could reinforce this bullish sentiment, potentially leading to a stronger dollar.
In contrast, the Vietnamese Đồng has faced significant depreciation against major currencies, including a forecasted 3% decline against the USD in 2025, as predicted by economists at Vietcombank Securities Company. This is largely attributed to the strengths of the USD and broader global economic trends. Additionally, the impact of U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese exports is another factor pressuring the VND. The Vietnamese government may consider further currency depreciation to bolster export competitiveness amid these challenges.
Current market data indicates that the USD to VND rate has reached approximately 26,302, near its 60-day lows and consistent with its three-month average. The exchange rate has remained stable within a 1.0% range, reinforcing the notion that short-term volatility may be limited.
Overall, the interplay between hawkish U.S. policies and the pressures facing the VND is expected to shape the exchange rate landscape. Investors and businesses should remain vigilant as these developments unfold, as they will likely impact international transaction costs.
