This is the current AUD-HKD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-HKD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs HKD, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar news and forecasts.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
2018 has been a good year for the Hong Kong dollar, as it has been for the US dollar, to which it is pegged.
Entering the third week of November 2018, HKD’s year-to-date gains over six of the seven non-USD majors averaged 5.4 percent. HKD was unchanged against the yen.
At different times in 2018, HKD has benefitted from Brexit uncertainty in Europe, from inactivity on monetary policy in Oceania, and a recent collapse in the oil market, which saw its value rise against petro-currencies.
Seasonality becomes an important supporting factor for HKD approaching year-end, and especially in November. Since 2010, HKD has averaged trade-weighted gains of 1.8 percent in November and 0.2 percent in December.
By way of its USD forecasts, Citibank said in September that HKD would gain 3-4 percent over a 6-12-month period; however, gains would be followed by an 11 percent loss in the long term.
Like Citi, ING remain long-term bearish on USD and HKD. ING isn't ruling out interventions from Washington aimed at weakening the greenback. President Trump clearly would like a far weaker currency.
J.P. Morgan said in November that USD and HKD would be worth slightly more in the first half of 2019, before weakening slightly in the second half of the year.
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