MXN/BRL - Live Converters & Chart

Mexican Peso (MXN) outlook

At 18.8 per US dollar, the Mexican peso was trading on April-20 close to its strongest level in 6 ½ months, though it was meeting significant resistance (USD/MXN support) at 18.75—a level from which the peso was repelled twice last October, in March, and once already in April.

Boosting the peso has been the thriving oil market. Oil is high on the list of Mexico’s top exports and by April-20 it was up 44 percent for the year to $65 per barrel.

Also supporting the peso has been the dovish turn by the Federal Reserve. With no increase in US interest rates projected this year, the dollar will weaken and the peso should gain value because Mexico holds high levels of dollar-denominated debt, which becomes easier to repay when dollars are cheap and US rates are low.

Earlier this year, ING said that the peso would be among 2019’s best performing emerging market currencies, though newly-formed BlueLine Asset Management said one if its first market bets would be on peso depreciation based on disappointing economic growth.

Brazilian Real (BRL) outlook

2018 was a disappointing year for the Brazilian real: it lost 15 percent of its value against the US dollar and more than 10 percent against the euro.

The real started 2019 brightly: by early February, it held a year-to-date gain worth 7 percent against the dollar. Throughout February and into March, the real weakened somewhat, but then on March-22 (the day of this report), it plunged on news that former Brazilian president Michel Temer had been arrested on corruption charges — an arrest that might impede the pension reforms that analysts say are vital to Brazil’s economic recovery. A one-day fall of 3 percent following the arrest had the real down on the year, at R$3.9 per USD. A push back towards the R$4.0 handle, last seen in September, is now likely.

In March, Brazil’s central bank adopted a dovish tone and lowered its forecast for average interest rates, further burdening the real.

Despite these issues, one analyst said that he was putting capital into the real because of the “textbook” nature of the current environment, which favoured carry trades and the high-yielding currencies upon which these are based, like the real.

The MXN/BRL mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news, nobody except the largest banks and businesses can get exchange rates close to this mid-rate. It is actually just the theoretical half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the MXN / BRL was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.