Whenever you are interested in an exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies due to the fact that the value of a currency must always be quoted in comparison to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs DKK, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Danish Krone news and forecasts.
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.
The Danish krone, together with the euro to which it is pegged, is heading higher, experts said in November.
With Brexit increasingly seen as a UK problem rather than a Europe-wide one, and despite recent disappointments in economic data, Citibank is confident of a long-term move in USD/DKK to 5.75, from 6.548 at the time of this report (November-21). “Underpinned by the less accommodative policies of the ECB,” the krone will most likely achieve this target, which represents a 14 percent gain, before the end of 2019, Citi has said.
Relative to the pound, the krone had recovered in the days leading up to this report to a rate of 8.37 per GBP, from 8.62. With political turmoil in the UK, there was room for the exchange rate to reach 8.1 in the months ahead, said a Nordea Markets analyst. A return to 8.1 would take GBP/DKK back to levels not seen since September 2017.
A 5.5 percent rise in the krone’s buying power will see CHF/DKK trade at 6.2 sometime within the next 6-12 months, per analysts at Danske Bank. The rate averaged 6.54 in the weeks leading up to this report.