This is the current USD-NOK mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-NOK exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs NOK, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Norwegian Krone news and forecasts.
In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.
The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.
Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.
In the second half of April, the Norwegian krone rallied to a 5-month high against the euro, at Kr9.56, and was strong against other major currencies. Strength was fuelled by a thriving oil market. Oil, Norway’s largest export, was up 44 percent on the year by April-20, to $65 per barrel. Also boosting the krone in April were better-than-expected inflation figures — inflation is now 2.9 percent, more than double that in the Euro Area (1.4 percent).
As expected, Norway's central bank raised interest rates to 1 percent in March. Tighter Norwegian monetary policy throughout 2019 would support the krone, especially if the ECB fails to raise rates.
Earlier this year, Lloyds predicted EUR/NOK at 9.4 at year-end. That level represents a major resistance point for the krone; EUR/NOK hasn’t broken below 9.4 since October 2017.
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