Currency news and forecasts for United States Dollar and Norwegian Krone
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs NOK, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Norwegian Krone news and forecasts.
United States Dollar (USD) - Market news and forecasts
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.
Norwegian Krone (NOK) - Market news and forecasts
At the time of writing (9-Nov-18), the Norwegian krone was struggling somewhat on the back of a total reversal in the oil market. The price of oil, on which Norway’s economy relies, had fallen in 5 straight weeks, by 23 percent in total, and as a consequence the krone lost value against every other G10 currency in the weeks leading up to this report.
Conditions away from volatile energy prices were good for krone appreciation though. Chief among supporting factors is monetary policy. In September, interest rates in Norway were raised for the first time since 2011. The quarter-point hike from 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent is likely to be followed by another in early 2019.
At the time of writing, the krone had lost 2.8 percent year-to-date against the dollar, to a rate of kr8.435, and had gained 3.1 percent against the euro, to kr9.55.