This is the current USD-NOK mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-NOK exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs NOK, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Norwegian Krone news and forecasts.
26-January-19: 2018 was a reasonable year for the dollar. Measured by the US Dollar Index, the greenback appreciated by 4 percent, which was much better than 2017’s 10 percent loss. It was, though, something of a stuttering end to 2018 and the dollar has had mixed fortunes in early 2019.
In December, after lifting US interest rates to 2.25-2.5 percent, the Fed lowered its expectations for future hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.). Skepticism among analysts over future Fed hikes has for some time been the main reason for dollar pessimism for 2019, but now, there is also the prospect of a US economic slowdown to contend with.
“A slowdown in the economy is likely to weigh on USD particularly in the second half of this year,” a CIBC researcher said in January.
Of the same opinion was an expert at ING, who argued that the dollar is soon to “embark on a gradual long-term bearish trend.”
January’s extended US government shutdown also has dollar-negative ramifications. Not only is the shutdown likely to hit first-quarter GDP growth, disagreements within Congress bode poorly for the future of potentially inflationary fiscal spending.
16-February-2019: January was a good month for the Norwegian krone with gains of 3 percent against both the dollar and euro. The krone was driven higher by a turn in the oil price, which had collapsed in the fourth quarter of last year. In December, oil losses took the krone to a 10-year low against the euro (Kr10.057) and to a 3-year low versus the dollar (Kr8.823). By the end of January, the dollar was buying only Kr8.426 and the euro only Kr9.646.
In the first half of February, the krone has struggled: on balance, it has given back roughly half of its January gains. Traders appeared to anticipate February’s slower inflation data (for the month of January) and favoured other currencies. Traders also sought more liquid, safer currencies as recession risks increased for some of Norway’s major trading partners.
Norway's central bank said in December that it would “most likely” raise interest rates in March. A tighter Norwegian monetary policy throughout 2019 would support the krone, especially if the ECB fails to raise rates.
In February, Lloyds predicted EUR/NOK at 9.4 at year-end.
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