Currency news and forecasts for United States Dollar and Russian Ruble
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs RUB, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Russian Ruble news and forecasts.
United States Dollar (USD) - Market news and forecasts
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.
Russian Ruble (RUB) - Market news and forecasts
At the end of October, the ruble was showing year-to-date losses of 12.5 percent and 6.5 percent against the dollar and euro respectively.
Although hardly optimistic for those holding Russian currency, the aforementioned losses mark considerable strength on mid-September rates, which preceded the surprise interest rate hike on September 14th by the Russian central bank (rates were lifted to 7.5 percent). Prior to the hike, the ruble had slipped to 2-1/2-year lows. In October, the central bank warned businesses of further tightening ahead, which would be good for the ruble.
Ruble weakness this year has been driven by central bank buying of foreign currencies for the purposes of bolstering Russia’s FX reserves – an act that necessitates selling large amounts of rubles, which weighs on valuations. Equally, US sanctions on Russia and the emerging market currency crises in Argentina and Turkey have played a part.