Recent developments indicate a complex backdrop for the AED to CAD exchange rate, as both currencies are influenced by multiple factors. The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been experiencing some support from a stronger US dollar; however, it faces limitations due to weakening oil prices, which are crucial for the CAD given Canada's significant reliance on oil exports. The recent oil price trend shows an increase, currently at $68.80, which is 3.2% above its three-month average. This rise may provide some support for the CAD, though volatility in oil prices remains a concern as they have fluctuated between $60.14 and $78.85.
In the context of the AED, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the military strikes involving Israel and Iran, have introduced volatility into the UAE markets. Such events could influence the overall stability of the AED, especially with oil prices likely to be affected. Additionally, the Arab Monetary Fund's positive economic growth forecast of 6.2% for the UAE in 2025 is a bright spot, driven by tourism and trade, but this must be weighed against signs of contraction in the UAE's non-oil sector.
For the CAD, the recent political change with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's resignation and the appointment of Mark Carney has caused uncertainty, presenting potential risks to CAD stability moving forward. Furthermore, ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., including tariffs on Canadian exports, could continue to limit potential gains for the CAD.
Currently, the AED to CAD exchange rate sits at 90-day lows near 0.3695, which is 1.7% below its three-month average of 0.376. Analysts note that this pairing has recently traded within a relatively stable range of 0.3695 to 0.3883. This trend reflects broader underlying economic challenges for both currencies, particularly concerning global commodity prices and political stability.
As market dynamics continue to evolve, both travelers and businesses engaging in international transactions should remain vigilant and closely monitor updates regarding geopolitical events, trade policies, and economic indicators relevant to the AED and CAD.