The recent exchange rate forecasts for the AED to HKD highlight several factors contributing to the current dynamics in both currencies. The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has experienced consistent weakness, primarily due to a widening interest rate gap between the US and Hong Kong, which has encouraged capital outflows. As noted by analysts, the HKD remained near the upper limit of its peg band against the USD, with forecasts suggesting it may hold close to 7.85 unless there are shifts in global sentiment or significant policy changes from the Federal Reserve.
During June 2025, the HKMA intervened to stabilize the HKD amidst persistent outflows, driven by a strong demand for carry trades as investors capitalized on the interest differential. Given this context, the USDHKD exchange rate is expected to remain anchored within the higher range of its band, influenced heavily by ongoing demand pressures and the macroeconomic landscape. Forecasts indicate that without a shift from the Federal Reserve or improved local economic conditions, the HKD may continue to struggle.
In contrast, the UAE Dirham (AED) is seeing potential support from positive economic forecasts, with growth projected at 6.2% in 2025, spurred by tourism and international trade. However, geopolitical tensions and softening non-oil sector performance pose challenges. Furthermore, ongoing negotiations for trade agreements with the U.S. could influence future currency strengths and trade balances in the region.
Recent data shows the AED to HKD exchange rate has reached 90-day highs around 2.1377, consistent with its three-month average. This stability indicates a narrower trading range from 2.1174 to 2.1377, suggesting limited volatility in the near term.
Overall, analysts express caution but recognize that the AED's robust economic growth forecasts and HKD's structural pressures could result in a stable yet cautious environment for AED to HKD exchange rates in the coming months. Prospective travelers and businesses engaging in international transactions should monitor these developments closely to optimize costs associated with currency conversions.
