The exchange rate forecast for the AED to HKD has been influenced by recent developments in both the UAE and Hong Kong. As of now, the AED to HKD exchange rate is trading at approximately 2.1180, which is close to its three-month average. This stability is highlighted by a 14-day high that has seen the currency pair range between 2.1149 and 2.1372 over the last few weeks.
In the UAE, significant announcements such as the bilateral currency swap agreement between the UAE and Turkey are expected to enhance liquidity. This deal, valued at 18 billion AED, is designed to facilitate smoother financial transactions and could strengthen the AED's position. Additionally, a favorable IMF report projecting a robust 4.8% GDP growth for 2025 reinforces the UAE's economic outlook and supports the resilience of the dirham amidst global uncertainties.
Conversely, the Hong Kong dollar is facing challenges following the recent 25 basis point cut in interest rates by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). This decision, made on September 18, 2025, aligns with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cuts and signals a response to prevailing economic conditions. The HKMA's prior interventions to support the HKD, including both buying and selling in the foreign exchange market, illustrate an ongoing commitment to maintaining the peg despite external pressures.
Analysts remain cautious about the HKD's near-term stability as the effects of interest rate changes emerge. In contrast, the proactive measures taken by the UAE to attract foreign investment, particularly from the UK real estate market, may help bolster the AED.
Considering these factors, forecasters suggest that the AED could maintain its position against the HKD, primarily driven by the positive economic outlook for the UAE and the anticipated effects of Hong Kong's monetary policy adjustments.
