The exchange rate forecasts for the AED to VND pairing are influenced by several recent developments affecting both currencies. Analysts have noted that the AED remains relatively stable, currently trading at 7153 VND, which is just 0.6% above its three-month average of 7111 VND, reflecting a narrow trading range of 1.4% from 7055 to 7157. This stability is largely attributed to the UAE's peg to the U.S. dollar, which has been strengthened recently due to U.S. tariff policies and the overall robust performance of the dollar in the global markets.
The imposition of new tariffs by the U.S., particularly a significant 25% on Indian goods, has contributed to a decline in UAE markets, potentially impacting investments and growth within the region. Consequently, analysts indicate that any fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value can lead to corresponding movements in the dirham's exchange rate against the dong.
On the Vietnamese side, the recent implementation of a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese goods has raised concerns among economists regarding its impact on Vietnam's economic performance. However, strong economic growth of 7.09% in 2024 helps to support the stability of the VND. Commitments from the State Bank of Vietnam to maintain accommodative monetary policies amidst declining global inflation are also expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the VND.
As both currencies navigate through these external pressures and internal economic growth rates, forecasts remain cautious in the short to medium term. Experts emphasize that while the AED may stay steady due to its dollar peg, any significant volatility in the U.S. dollar or drastic shifts in Vietnamese export dynamics could alter the exchange rate landscape for AED to VND. Looking ahead, the interplay of tariffs, economic growth, and central bank maneuvers will be integral for both currencies, warranting close monitoring for those involved in international transactions.
