Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, above the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The BoE is seen easing gradually while the CNB maintains a tighter stance, keeping the koruna comparatively firm against the pound.
• Macro: CNB inflation remains close to target with solid growth, a backdrop that underpins the koruna and limits sterling strength.
Range: GBP/CZK is likely to hold near the upper end of its recent range, with modest drift as markets digest data and central bank guidance.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: unexpectedly strong UK data or a surprise delay in CNB tightening could lift GBP.
• Downside risk: softer UK data or a firmer CNB stance that narrows the gap could push GBP/CZK lower.