GBP/NGN Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows amid ongoing UK political uncertainty.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England’s dovish stance contrasts with the Central Bank of Nigeria maintaining high interest rates to manage inflation.
• Risk/commodities: The recent rise in oil prices adds pressure on the Nigerian naira, affecting its exchange rate against the British pound.
• One macro factor: UK GDP data release ahead might create further GBP volatility, with cautious investor reactions expected.
Range:
GBP/NGN is likely to drift within the recent range, as it remains close to 90-day lows.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise increase in UK GDP could boost GBP against the naira.
• Downside risk: Continued political instability in the UK may lead to further GBP declines.