The GBP to RUB exchange rate is currently range-bound.
The recent interest rate decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) indicate a slower pace of future cuts, which supports the pound. The Bank of Russia is looking to reduce its interest rate from 17.5% to between 12.0% and 13.0% by 2026, which could weaken the ruble. Economic growth in Russia is forecasted to slow, while inflation is expected to decrease, impacting the ruble's stability.
The GBP to RUB has been trading near its three-month average and has shown volatility, with movement in a 10.5% range. Oil prices, currently below their average, can also influence the ruble due to Russia’s reliance on oil revenues, which affects exchange rate dynamics.
An upside risk could arise if UK retail sales significantly rebound, boosting GBP strength. Conversely, further fiscal concerns in the UK could trigger increased pressure on the pound, potentially pushing the GBP down against the RUB.