The current market bias for GBP to RUB is bearish.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with the Bank of England expected to reduce rates to around 3.25% by mid-2026, while the Bank of Russia anticipates lowering its rate from 17.5% to between 12.0% and 13.0%. Economic growth in the UK is projected to slow to 1.2%, which may weaken the pound further. Additionally, the Russian inflation rate is expected to decline to 4.0%, potentially supporting the ruble's value.
In the near term, the GBP/RUB rate may trade in a broad range as it adjusts to these economic factors, reflecting volatility observed in the past months.
An upside risk for GBP/RUB could emerge from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that might lift the pound. Conversely, a downside risk could arise if oil prices continue to weaken, impacting the ruble negatively, given its correlation with oil exports.