Bias: Range-bound: the current GBP/RUB sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of the last three months' range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: BoE cautious on cuts; Bank of Russia keeps policy tight with gradual easing expected, this divergence lends modest support to the ruble amid global risk.
• Oil trend: Oil prices sit near recent highs with higher volatility; firmer oil tends to underpin the ruble given Russia's energy link.
• Macro factor: Sanctions impact: EU gas ban could squeeze energy export revenue and inject ruble volatility, keeping the pair sensitive to policy signals.
Range: GBP/RUB has moved within a broad three-month band and is currently near the midpoint, suggesting only a shallow drift within established levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger UK data or hawkish surprises from the BoE that keep sterling firmer versus the ruble, supported by cooling inflation and resilient services growth.
• Downside risk: softer UK data or a faster BoE easing path that drags the pound lower and narrows the yield advantage versus Russia.