Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as GBP is below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is expected to reduce interest rates gradually, contrasting with the Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy to stabilize the ruble.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have risen slightly above their 3-month average, which supports the ruble due to Russia's dependence on energy exports for revenue.
• Economic forecasts: Projections indicate a gradual weakening of the ruble, but the currency is still expected to perform better than current estimates suggest.
Range: GBP/RUB is likely to drift within the current range, with potential volatility depending on broader market movements.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger rebound in UK economic data could provide support for the GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions and external economic pressures may further weaken the ruble, impacting GBP/RUB dynamics.