Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as GBP is below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England's cautious stance on rate cuts contrasts with the Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy, which keeps the ruble relatively stable.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices may support the ruble, as they enhance Russia's energy revenue.
• Economic forecasts: The Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects a gradual weakening of the ruble, while the UK's economic growth is anticipated to slow, leading to potential pressure on GBP.
Range: GBP/RUB is likely to drift within the recent range, influenced by external market movements and limited GBP data.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected recovery in UK economic data could boost GBP.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions and further sanctions on Russia could pressure the ruble and affect GBP/RUB negatively.