Bias: Range-bound, as GBP/RUB sits near its 90-day average and in the middle of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The BoE has signaled a cautious pace of rate cuts, while the Bank of Russia keeps policy tight with a plan for gradual easing later, so the UK path remains firmer relative to Russia.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is near 90-day highs with volatility; firmer oil tends to support the ruble on energy links, but swings can retrace and keep the cross choppy.
• Macro: EU gas sanctions curb energy export revenue and pressure the ruble.
Range: GBP/RUB is likely to hold near the middle of its three-month range, with a drift toward the upper end if oil stays firm and UK data hints at resilience, and market liquidity could tune the pace.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: BoE signaling higher-for-longer policy supports GBP versus RUB.
• Downside risk: Renewed sanctions or weaker energy revenues weigh on the ruble.