GBP/RUB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England's dovish stance contrasts with the Bank of Russia's floating exchange rate policy, impacting GBP and RUB differently.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which could support the ruble as higher oil typically boosts Russian export revenues.
- One macro factor: Recent uncertainty regarding UK political leadership has weakened GBP confidence, particularly with questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Range:
Expect the GBP/RUB to hold within its recent 3-month range, showing limited movement as the currencies stabilize.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A surprise increase in UK economic data could boost GBP significantly.
- Downside risk: Further sanctions affecting Russia's financial system could lead to increased ruble volatility, impacting the exchange rate negatively.