GBP/RUB Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is just below its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England is poised to maintain interest rates, while the Central Bank of Russia has cut forex interventions, which could lead to a weaker ruble, supporting the pound.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which generally supports the ruble when prices rise, but high volatility could create uncertainties in its strength.
• One macro factor: Growth in the UK manufacturing sector has accelerated, potentially providing mild support for the pound amidst a mixed economic backdrop.
Range: GBP/RUB is likely to drift sideways within its recent 3-month range due to the lack of clear directional drivers.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected economic performance from the UK, leading to increased investor confidence in GBP.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions impacting market risk appetite and leading to a decline in the ruble's value.
