Bias: range-bound, with GBP/RUB near its 90-day average and mid-range in the last three months.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The BoE is expected to ease gradually in 2026 while the Bank of Russia keeps policy tight with only a modest late-stage cut; the widening yield-gap (difference in expected interest rates) in favor of RUB could limit GBP gains.
- Risk/commodities: Oil remains firm and volatile, a condition that tends to underpin the ruble on energy export revenue expectations and thus offers some insulation for RUB against UK-driven moves.
- One macro factor: EU sanctions restricting new gas contracts press on energy export revenue, weighing on the ruble and acting as a headwind for GBP.
Range: expect a drift within the three-month band, with occasional tests of the range edges as headlines move markets.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected UK data or a more cautious BoE path that delays rate cuts, boosting GBP.
- Downside risk: Oil price retreat or renewed sanctions depressing energy revenues, weighing on RUB.