GBP/RUB Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows without a strong driver pushing change.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of England appears stable with no interest rate cuts expected soon, while the Bank of Russia signals a shift to lower rates in 2026, which may weaken the ruble.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently near recent highs, nearly 10% above average, which may provide some support for the ruble through higher energy revenues.
• One macro factor: UK retail sales exceeding forecasts hints at some economic resilience, although overall inflation concerns persist.
Range: GBP/RUB is likely to drift within its current 3-month range, given the current positioning below the average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise increase in UK interest rates could enhance GBP's value against the ruble.
• Downside risk: Increased sanctions on Russian oil exports could further pressure the ruble.