GBP/RUB Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and lacks a clear driver for a significant move.
Key drivers:
• The Bank of England is expected to take a cautious approach to rate cuts, which may limit the GBP's strength against the RUB.
• Oil prices, which are currently above average, can support the RUB since the Russian economy is closely tied to energy exports.
• Global trade tensions, particularly US tariffs on UK goods, could negatively impact the GBP, creating uncertainty for traders.
Range: The GBP/RUB is expected to drift within its 3-month range, likely holding below recent highs due to the challenges facing the pound.
What could change it:
• A potential upside risk could emerge if the UK economy shows unexpected resilience, boosting the GBP.
• A downside risk may arise from further deterioration in UK economic forecasts or ongoing sanctions against Russia that impact the RUB negatively.