Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound GBP/RUB, as the pair sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range, as traders await clearer signals.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoE remains cautious on rate cuts, while the Bank of Russia keeps policy tight with an easing path later for now.
- Risk/commodities: Oil holds near highs, supporting the ruble through export flows and inflows, helping RUB to resist GBP gains in response to global supply dynamics.
- One macro factor: UK inflation is expected to ease toward the BoE target later in the year, softening the pound’s near-term support and keeping policy expectations balanced.
Range: GBP/RUB is likely to drift within its three-month range, with a bias toward the lower end if risk appetite stays subdued, as macro data remains thin.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: a surprise rebound in UK data or a broader improvement in risk appetite that lifts GBP versus RUB.
- Downside risk: oil stays elevated and sanctions tighten, boosting ruble strength and pushing GBP/RUB toward the lower end.
