The GBP to RUB exchange rate is currently bullish, having reached 60-day highs near 108.3, which is 2% above its 3-month average. Key drivers include the Bank of England's potential for slower interest rate cuts, keeping the interest rate differential in favor of the pound. Inflation trends show a gradual decline in the UK, while the Bank of Russia plans to lower its key interest rate from 17.5% to between 12% and 13% by 2026, which may support the ruble's stability.
In the near term, the expected trading range for GBP/RUB should stay within a broader fluctuations backdrop given current volatility in oil prices, with oil sitting at 7-day lows near 60.64. An upside risk could stem from stronger-than-expected UK retail sales, while a downside risk may emerge if oil prices continue to weaken significantly, putting additional pressure on the ruble.