The current market bias for GBP to RUB is bullish.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential, with the Bank of England cutting rates slower than expected while the Bank of Russia plans reduced rates to stabilize the ruble.
- The UK’s inflation is projected to decline, which may support the pound, while Russia anticipates slowing GDP growth, influencing the ruble negatively.
- Retail sales data from the UK could provide additional support for GBP if sales growth rebounds.
In the near term, GBP to RUB is expected to trade within a range seen in the last three months, which has been notably volatile.
An upside risk could arise from stronger-than-expected UK economic data, while a downside risk could come from heightened tensions in oil markets, affecting the ruble's performance. Additionally, oil prices have recently reported a decrease, which could pressure the ruble further.