Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, GBP/VND sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The BoE is seen easing gradually while Vietnam's central bank keeps policy tight, widening the gap and supporting GBP when risk appetite improves.
- Risk/commodities: Oil price stability and a calmer global risk tone influence trade costs and funding flows, generally supporting GBP when risk appetite rises.
- One macro factor: Fed rate cuts ease dollar pressure, which tends to help the VND.
Range: the pair is likely to drift within the recent range, with a bias toward the upper end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: firmer UK data or a slower pace of BoE easing than expected could push the pair higher.
- Downside risk: renewed dollar strength or signs of larger Vietnamese policy tightening could weigh on the pair.
