NZD/INR Outlook:
The NZD/INR is likely to increase as it currently trades significantly above its 90-day average and is at recent highs, bolstered by a positive outlook for New Zealand business confidence.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rates stable but indicated delayed rate hikes, which supports NZD.
• Risk/commodities: Volatility in oil prices is influencing the INR, thereby enhancing NZD's relative strength.
• One macro factor: The recent reduction of US tariffs on New Zealand exports may boost trade revenues, favorably impacting the NZD.
Range:
The NZD/INR is likely to drift within the current range, with potential for small fluctuations around recent highs.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected business confidence data could further lift the NZD.
• Downside risk: Significant declines in global commodity prices may weaken the NZD against the INR.