Forecasts for NZD to JPY
Recent forecasts and market updates indicate a challenging environment for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the Japanese yen (JPY). Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from New Zealand, the NZD has weakened, resonating with a similar decline in the Australian dollar (AUD) due to their strong correlation. Analysts note that New Zealand’s trade figures could further influence the NZD's movement, but overall sentiment leans bearish amidst ongoing trade tensions.
In the case of the JPY, the recent imposition of a 24% reciprocal tariff on goods from Japan has also pressured the currency. However, the yen has strengthened as global investors seek safe havens amid geopolitical uncertainties and trade war escalations. According to MUFG Research, a forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate predicts a decline from 154.00 in Q1 2025 to 148.00 by Q4 2025, although a recent depreciation against the dollar might prompt a re-evaluation of these estimates.
Currently, the NZD/JPY exchange rate stands at 85.33, hovering just above its three-month average. The pair has experienced significant volatility, trading in an 8.2% range from 80.96 to 87.57. Economic analysts suggest that persistent tariffs could dampen demand for New Zealand's key commodities, potentially leading to further declines in the NZD.
Moreover, the performance of the yen is closely tied to oil prices, as Japan is a significant energy importer. The recent oil price data shows Brent Crude OIL/USD at 64.78, which is 4.8% below its three-month average, indicating volatility in this sector that may further influence the JPY. Geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in commodity prices will likely play a critical role in shaping future currency exchange trends between NZD and JPY.
In summary, traders and businesses engaged in international transactions should stay alert to ongoing trade developments and economic indicators that may impact the NZD/JPY rate, as both currencies navigate a landscape marked by tariffs, risk sentiment, and commodity price movements.
