NZD/JPY Outlook:
The NZD/JPY is likely to increase as the rate is currently trading above its recent average and near recent highs. The recent positive shifts in global dairy prices support this outlook.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains a hawkish stance to counter rising inflation, which creates a favorable gap over the Bank of Japan’s relatively lower rate environment.
- Risk/commodities: The recent surge in global oil prices, significantly above the average, raises import costs for Japan, which can weaken the yen further.
- One macro factor: New Zealand's trade deficit could affect the NZD, although positive trends in dairy prices may offset this impact.
Range:
Expect the NZD/JPY to hold within its recent trading range, with potential fluctuations as market conditions evolve.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A larger-than-expected increase in global dairy prices could strengthen the NZD further.
- Downside risk: A return to economic instability or negative news from New Zealand could pressure the NZD lower.