The NZD to JPY exchange rate is currently range-bound. Key drivers include:
- A weakening New Zealand dollar due to expectations of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), contrasted with a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
- Mixed economic outlooks for both countries, where Japan shows improved business sentiment while New Zealand’s growth appears limited despite some positive GDP figures.
- Ongoing volatility in oil prices, with current levels significantly lower than the three-month average, which can affect both currencies indirectly through trade and energy costs.
In the near term, the exchange rate is likely to trade within a stable range above recent averages, but volatility may persist. One upside risk is a stronger-than-expected recovery in New Zealand’s export performance, while a downside risk is a potential slowdown in Japan’s economy that could affect the JPY’s strength.