NZD/JPY Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is signalling potential interest rate cuts to stimulate growth, while the Bank of Japan has recently raised rates to combat inflation, creating a divergence between the two currencies.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices currently above average, this supports the New Zealand dollar, known for its commodity-driven economy.
• One macro factor: High dairy prices are bolstering New Zealand's export income, which is essential for the NZD’s stability.
Range:
Expect movement within the recent 3-month range, with the rate likely holding firm for now.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger global risk appetite could boost the NZD further.
• Downside risk: Renewed trade tensions or negative economic data from New Zealand could weigh on the NZD.