NZD/JPY Outlook:
The NZD/JPY pair is likely to increase as it trades above its 90-day average and is near recent highs, supported by improving New Zealand business confidence forecasts.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is maintaining low rates, while the Bank of Japan's recent hikes are making the JPY less attractive.
• Risk/commodities: With recent oil prices at 90-day highs, the NZD benefits as higher global commodity prices can support New Zealand's export income.
• One macro factor: Improving business confidence in New Zealand is expected to strengthen the NZD in the short term.
Range:
The NZD/JPY is likely to test recent highs after trading in a stable range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in global commodity prices could further enhance NZD strength.
• Downside risk: A sudden drop in New Zealand's export prices, particularly in dairy, could weaken the NZD.