The NZD/JPY exchange rate has a bearish bias as the New Zealand dollar faces headwinds.
Key drivers include:
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to cut interest rates, which may weaken the NZD against the JPY.
- The Japanese yen is supported by a recent interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), reflecting efforts to combat inflation.
- Japan’s improved business sentiment may strengthen the yen further, while New Zealand's growth outlook remains uncertain.
Near-term, the NZD/JPY is expected to trade within a stable range, just slightly above its current price, given recent data showing a 1.9% increase compared to its three-month average.
An upside risk for the NZD could arise from a significant recovery in New Zealand’s economic growth, while a downside risk may stem from any unexpected interventions by the Japanese government to address yen weakness.