Forecasts for NZD to PHP
Recent forecasts indicate a challenging outlook for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the Philippine peso (PHP), driven primarily by geopolitical and economic factors. Analysts point to the negative impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from New Zealand, which is likely to dampen demand for key commodities and subsequently weaken the NZD. The correlation between the NZD and Australian dollar (AUD) means that any weakening of the AUD following the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcements could also affect the NZD, as both currencies have a strong positive correlation due to their geographical proximity and similar economic dependencies.
Market updates reveal that the NZD currently trades at 14-day highs near 33.14 PHP, exceeding its 3-month average. However, this strength comes amidst recent instability and could be temporary as external factors like tariffs and shifts in risk appetite come into play. The potential for an escalating trade war under a Trump presidency could further exacerbate these risks, particularly as the Philippine peso is also facing its own challenges, including a 17% reciprocal tariff rate imposed by the U.S. and anticipated depreciation against the USD given the country’s weaker external balances.
Experts note that the recent political turmoil in the Philippines, including the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte, could contribute to a climate of uncertainty that affects market sentiment. This situation may weigh on the peso, leading to a complex interplay as the outlook for emerging Asian currencies appears to be deteriorating amid increased protectionist measures from the U.S.
Overall, while the NZD may currently find some support as it reaches near-term highs against the PHP, the broader outlook remains uncertain. Analysts recommend closely monitoring geopolitical developments and external economic indicators that could sway both currencies in the coming weeks.
