The recent behavior of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the New Taiwan dollar (TWD) has been influenced by a mix of domestic economic indicators and external market sentiments. As of early November 2025, the NZD has faced pressure due to disappointing domestic card spending figures, resulting in a brief retreat, but it has shown some resilience with a rebound attributed to a positive risk appetite.
Analysts noted that NZD's performance could be impacted significantly by the latest economic developments. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets with a 50 basis point rate cut, reducing the cash rate to 2.5%. This move was primarily driven by rising unemployment, which reached 5.3% in Q3 2025, the highest level since 2016, alongside a contraction of 0.9% in the preceding quarter. Coupled with inflation hitting the upper end of the RBNZ's target range at 3%, these factors contribute to concerns about the overall economic outlook in New Zealand.
On the other hand, the TWD has shown some resilience supported by the central bank's positive economic forecasts for 2025, projecting a growth rate of 4.55%. The outlook is bolstered by strong exports, particularly in advanced semiconductor markets, although U.S. tariffs present potential risks that could influence future monetary policy. Nonetheless, the TWD has experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a recent high of beyond 29 TWD per USD before dropping to around 30 TWD, which intensifies the challenges for exporters in Taiwan.
The NZD to TWD exchange rate currently sits near 17.41, marking a 90-day low and approximately 1.8% below its 3-month average of 17.73. Analysts observe that this pair has traded within a stable 4.0% range from 17.41 to 18.11, indicating a relatively calm market environment despite the underlying economic tensions.
Forecasts suggest that if the RBNZ continues on its easing path in response to persistent economic challenges, the NZD may struggle to regain strength against the TWD. Conversely, should Taiwan's economic growth materialize without significant disruptions from tariffs or currency volatility, the TWD may further appreciate, making for a dynamic trading outlook in the near term.
