SEK/USD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear fundamental driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Riksbank's stable policy rate contrasts with the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have been volatile, which tends to affect the SEK positively, as Sweden is a net importer of oil.
• One macro factor: Sweden's GDP growth is projected to rise, supported by fiscal stimulus and increasing domestic demand, which could bolster the SEK.
Range: SEK/USD is likely to hold firm compared to its recent range, with potential minor fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected economic performance in Sweden could drive the SEK higher against the USD.
• Downside risk: Further geopolitical tensions or weak economic data from the US could lead to a more significant decline in the USD.
