SEK/USD Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Riksbank cut interest rates recently, while the Federal Reserve has paused cuts, creating pressure on the SEK against the USD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have been under considerable pressure, affecting Sweden's economy, which is sensitive to commodity price trends.
• One macro factor: Sweden's GDP is projected to grow significantly, indicating potential for stronger economic performance in the future.
Range:
The SEK/USD is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range, maintaining its current position without reaching extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report leading to increased dollar strength could shift the rate higher.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions causing further depreciation of the dollar may negatively impact the SEK.
