SGD & PLN - Markets & outlook
Singapore dollar - SGD:
October 10, 2025
Key Developments Affecting the Singapore Dollar (SGD):
1. Monetary Policy Adjustments:
- January 2025: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) eased its monetary policy for the first time since 2020, reducing the rate of appreciation of the SGD to support economic growth amid moderating inflation. (cnbc.com)
- April 2025: MAS further adjusted its policy, lowering the SGD's appreciation rate in response to global trade uncertainties and U.S. tariffs impacting Singapore's export-dependent economy. (cnbc.com)
2. Economic Growth Forecasts:
- In April 2025, the Ministry of Trade and Industry downgraded Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0%-2%, down from the previous 1%-3%, citing declines in manufacturing and services sectors due to external trade tensions. (cnbc.com)
3. Impact of U.S. Tariffs:
- The MAS warned in April 2025 that U.S. tariffs would lead to a significant negative income and demand shock for Singapore’s economy, affecting exports and overall economic performance. (reuters.com)
4. Economic Strategy Review:
- In August 2025, Singapore launched a comprehensive economic strategy review to strengthen its position as a global trade and financial hub amid rising trade tensions and technological advancements. (reuters.com)
These developments indicate a cautious approach by Singapore's authorities to navigate external economic challenges and support the SGD's stability.
Polish zloty - PLN:
October 10, 2025
Key Developments Affecting the Polish Zloty (PLN):
1. Interest Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Decline: In May 2025, Poland's central bank, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), cut interest rates by 75 basis points, reducing the reference rate from 6.75% to 6%, despite ongoing high inflation. Governor Adam Glapiński justified the move by citing stabilizing prices and the end of the high inflation era. (apnews.com)
2. Central Bank Reports Losses: The NBP reported a loss of 20.8 billion zlotys ($5.2 billion) in 2023, up from a 16.9 billion zlotys loss in 2022. This increase was primarily attributed to the impact of a strong zloty, which firmed after the October parliamentary election. (reuters.com)
3. UBS Revises Zloty Forecast: In June 2025, UBS adjusted its forecast for the Polish zloty, citing persistent global trade frictions and domestic political challenges as key factors influencing the currency's outlook. The bank flattened its EUR/PLN forecast profile to 4.25 through the second quarter of 2026. (investing.com)
4. Zloty Hits 10-Year High: In February 2025, the zloty briefly surged to the highest level against the euro in a decade, reaching 4.1272 to the euro. This appreciation was driven by Poland's high policy rates attracting foreign capital and a decline in inflation, making Poland a relative safe haven for investors. (bloomberg.com)
These developments highlight the complex interplay of domestic monetary policies, global economic conditions, and political factors influencing the Polish zloty's performance in 2025.
