SGD/TWD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average without a strong driver pushing it higher.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Monetary Authority of Singapore's recent accommodative stance contrasts with Taiwan's more stable approach, potentially supporting SGD.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices remain stable, helping to maintain healthy economic conditions in Singapore, which may indirectly support the SGD.
- One macro factor: Singapore's GDP growth is expected to moderate, reflecting resilience despite global economic tensions, which could take some pressure off the SGD.
Range: Movement is likely to hold within the recent 3-month range, with potential minor fluctuations but no significant shifts expected in either direction.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: If Singapore's economic data shows unexpected strength, it could boost the SGD against the TWD.
- Downside risk: A sharp increase in global market volatility could negatively impact the SGD, shifting investors towards safer currencies.
