Bias: bearish-to-range-bound: USD/CLP sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: US policy is expected to ease toward a neutral stance in 2026, while Chile already cut rates in late 2025, narrowing the rate gap and supporting the peso.
- Risk/commodities: Copper prices have moved higher, boosting Chile's export revenues and helping the peso.
- One macro factor: Political developments in Chile after Kast's victory have underpinned reform hopes and lent a degree of peso resilience.
Range: USD/CLP is likely to drift within its 3-month range, with a tendency to test the lower end but not extend beyond.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US payroll data or a hawkish Fed tone that strengthens the dollar.
- Downside risk: a faster Chilean rate cut or a sharper copper rally boosting the peso.
