The USD to NGN exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate differentials suggest potential weakness in the USD due to upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts planned for 2026.
- The Nigerian Naira may face depreciation as inflation is projected to rise significantly, reaching around 37% by 2026.
- Global economic growth improvements could support the Naira, particularly if Nigeria's non-oil sectors perform well.
Near-term, the USD to NGN is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting recent averages and fluctuations. The current price is just below its 3-month average and has experienced a limited range.
An upside risk for the Naira includes strong performance in Nigeria's oil sectors or favorable policy changes. Conversely, a downside risk could emerge if global economic uncertainties impact investor confidence, hindering inflows and support for the Naira.