USD/NGN Outlook:
The USD/NGN rate is likely to decrease as it trades significantly below its recent average and near 90-day lows. Weighing on the naira is a forecasted rise in inflation, impacting its outlook negatively.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes strengthen the USD compared to the relatively stable policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices have been above average, supporting Nigerian revenue from exports, although Nigeria's reliance on oil makes the naira vulnerable to fluctuations.
• One macro factor: The IMF forecasts inflation in Nigeria could sharply rise, putting more pressure on the naira’s value in the coming months.
Range:
The USD/NGN is expected to drift lower, reflecting limited bullish momentum amid external pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Improved foreign investment and sustained oil price strength could bolster the naira.
• Downside risk: A significant increase in inflation would further weaken the naira's position against the USD.