The USD to NGN exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate gap between the US and Nigeria, as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, potentially weakening the USD.
- Recent global economic growth could bolster demand for commodities, impacting the Naira's performance.
- Rising inflation in Nigeria, projected to reach 37%, could further pressure the Naira.
In the near term, USD to NGN is likely to remain within a modest range as the market adjusts, amid recent trading around 1425 NGN, slightly below its three-month average of 1450 NGN.
Upside risks could stem from a recovery in global oil prices, positively influencing Nigeria’s economy and the Naira. Conversely, downside risks may arise if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts lead to significant dollar weakening faster than anticipated, impacting USD against the Naira.