The USD to NGN exchange rate currently shows a bearish bias.
Key drivers include the Federal Reserve's anticipation of several rate cuts by mid-2026, which may weaken the USD. Additionally, rising inflation in Nigeria projected to hit 37% next year could further pressure the Naira. Recent developments suggest the Naira may depreciate slightly to around N1,692.6 per USD by the end of 2026, highlighting ongoing economic challenges.
In the near term, the USD to NGN is expected to trade within a stable range around current levels, with limited volatility observed previously between N1,435 and N1,480. Any significant fluctuations in oil prices could impact the Naira, as it is closely tied to Nigeria's oil revenues.
An upside risk might be a strong rebound in global economic growth that supports the Naira, while a downside risk includes sharper-than-expected USD depreciation driven by further U.S. monetary easing measures.