USD/NGN Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, influenced by ongoing tariff concerns.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, which could weaken the dollar against the Nigerian central bank's more stable policy approach.
• Risk/commodities: OIL is currently trading higher than its average, which tends to support the naira due to Nigeria's reliance on oil exports.
• One macro factor: The Central Bank of Nigeria aims for exchange rate stability, which may keep the naira strong despite external pressures.
Range: The USD/NGN is likely to hold within its recent range, showing limited movement due to current conditions.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sudden spike in oil prices could strengthen the naira further, potentially pushing the USD/NGN rate down.
• Downside risk: Any escalation in tariff impacts or geopolitical tensions could pressure the dollar, resulting in a further decline in the USD/NGN rate.