USD/NGN Outlook:
The USD/NGN exchange rate is likely to decrease as it currently trades below its recent average and is nearing recent lows. The rising oil prices are putting pressure on the Naira, exacerbating its decline.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is generally more hawkish compared to the Central Bank of Nigeria, which is prioritizing currency stability.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is significantly above its recent average, raising global demand for USD as countries need to purchase oil in this currency.
• One macro factor: The Nigerian government continues its crude-for-naira policy, which is intended to stabilize the Naira amid high oil prices.
Range:
The USD/NGN is expected to drift within recent lows, testing its limits but lacking momentum to break higher.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in US job growth could boost USD demand further.
• Downside risk: A stabilization in oil prices or a strong recovery in the Naira could pressure USD/NGN lower.