Bias: bearish-to-range-bound — the USD is below its 90-day average and sits at the lower end of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The Fed is seen moving toward cuts later in 2026, while the Solomon Islands central bank maintains an expansionary stance, creating a diverging policy path that tends to keep the USD softer versus the SBD.
Macro factor: Upcoming US payrolls and unemployment data will shape Fed easing bets; a strong report could lift the dollar briefly, while weak data would keep rate cuts in focus.
Risk/commodities: Global risk appetite and oil price moves influence USD demand; softer risk tone generally strengthens the dollar, pressuring EM FX including the SBD.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the recent corridor, with only gradual moves and occasional tests of the lower boundary.
What could change it:
Upside risk: unexpectedly strong US payrolls or a hawkish Fed stance lift the USD.
Downside risk: softer US data or clearer easing signals from the Fed weigh on the dollar.
