This is the current AUD-IDR mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-IDR exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs IDR, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah news and forecasts.
Following a flash crash in early January, which saw the Australian dollar briefly trade at a 10-year low of $0.674, the Aussie recovered to $0.73, but then, as it had done before the flash crash, it commenced with a slow and steady decline, and it was back at $0.705 in mid-March and was predicted to fall further.
In February, HSBC predicted a year-end AUD/USD rate of $0.66. In March, Westpac and JP Morgan were slightly more upbeat and argued for $0.68.
Fuelling lower exchange rate forecasts is the Australian economic story, for which major themes include a housing market slump, Chinese growth and the US-China trade spat. The RBA slashed growth forecasts in February and markets are now pricing in 1-2 interest rate cuts this year.
Another Aussie exchange rate worth mentioning is AUD/GBP, which sank in mid-March to its lowest level in nearly 3 years, at just £0.53. The Australian dollar has been unable to compete with the pound of late, since the latter benefits every time the British government fails to make a decision on how to deliver Brexit (every time Brexit appears less likely or to be delayed).
In the second week of March, the rupiah experienced its largest one-day loss in 8 months. Indonesia’s currency bore the brunt of a carry trade reversal, fuelled by an increase in investor concerns over global growth after the ECB announced it had cut growth forecasts (other central banks also cut forecasts in early 2019). The rupiah weakened to a 2-month low of 14,305 to the dollar, though this was still nearly 7 percent stronger than lows from October.
A positive resolution to US-China trade talks will likely boost the rupiah. These were ongoing at the time of writing. April's general election adds uncertainty to the currency's outlook.
At the start of the year, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research advised making bets on rupiah appreciation for 2019; he described the rupiah as one of his “top trades” for the year. The rupiah will be strongly supported, the researcher said, once the Fed begins to slow down or pause on US interest rate hikes, likely in the second half of the year.
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