AUD/KRW - Rate Guide

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

South Korean Won (KRW)

The South Korean won has been the worst-performing Asian currency in 2019.

In the first five months of the year, the won lost 6 percent of its value against the dollar on its way to a 2-year low of ₩1,190, and lost 4 percent against the euro, with weakness driven by falling exports and an alarming drop in South Korean inflation, both of which drove expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea. In addition, the won is one of those currencies being used as a proxy for risk, particularly for risks relating to US-China trade.

The Bank of Korea has warned traders that it will intervene in markets to prop up the won should the rate of currency depreciation accelerate, though interventions will be “mild.”

In late May, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted a reversal in won weakness. It said that it was “just a matter of time” before investors again focused on South Korea’s strong fundamentals. The bank expects USD/KRW to fall 7 percent in the second half of the year to ₩1,110.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the AUD / KRW was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.