This is the current AUD-PHP mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-PHP exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs PHP, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Philippine Peso news and forecasts.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
9-January-19: Since 2013, the Philippine peso has been among the world’s worst performing currencies. In the final quarter of 2018, the peso weakened to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2005, at rates in the ₱54.40s. By 2018 year-end, the peso had recovered into the mid-₱52s per USD and was down around 5 percent for the year.
Unfortunately for peso holders, the currency’s downtrend (USD/PHP’s uptrend) will likely resume in 2019, per remarks by DBS’ chief economist, who said “a very similar dynamic” of peso weakness would play out.
FX forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg in January expected the peso to be the joint second-worst performing Asian currency of 2019, with an expected loss versus the dollar of 2.5 percent. Given that the same forecasters expected a disappointing year for the dollar, it was implied that the peso would do far worse against other major currencies.
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