This is the current CAD-USD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market CAD-USD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs USD, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and United States Dollar news and forecasts.
In the March-April period (to April-20), the Canadian dollar traded mostly sideways relative to USD, between C$1.33 and C$1.34; it was stable against EUR, at C$1.50, but against AUD it neared 15-week lows, at C$0.957.
Unlike other oil-sensitive currencies, the Canadian dollar has failed to take advantage of a thriving oil market, with the market’s attention instead turned towards the global economic slowdown and the Canadian housing market, which, according to the IMF, is now as risky as it was during the 2007-08 financial crisis.
Forecasters at RBC expect further sideways price action until mid-year, after which the loonie probably weakens modestly towards C$1.36 to the USD by year-end.
CIBC is also predicting C$1.36 per USD in December, and sees further weakness to C$1.40 sometime in 2020 — C$1.40 is an exchange rate last seen in February 2016.
In the final week of April, the Dollar Index smashed through a major resistance point at 97.70 and broke towards a 2-year high of 98.25. The index was up 2 percent year-to-date and was 11 percent higher than 2018’s low.
2019’s dollar gains have come chiefly at the expense of the euro, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, which all trade at or near multi-year lows. USD is also inflicting pain on the Australian dollar and other important currencies.
The greenback’s 2019 strength has come in spite of a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve, which said in March it expects no interest rate increase this year. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and many other central banks have also turned dovish, removing any incentive for selling USD.
Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that the dollar was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on the dollar.
Bloomberg Research warned in April of potential for a large dollar move, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in April at a 5-year low.
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