Currency news and forecasts for Canadian Dollar and United States Dollar
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the CAD vs USD, you should pay attention to both Canadian Dollar and United States Dollar news and forecasts.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Market news and forecasts
5-December-18: In early December, the Canadian dollar traded at C$1.34 per USD — its weakest level in 18 months. It did so after traders revised down their expectations for future Canadian interest rate hikes following a dovish Bank of Canada meeting.
Also not helping the loonie in late 2018 has been the oil price which, by the time of this report, had slumped 30 percent from 2018 highs. Oil is Canada’s largest export.
In December, several FX analysts expressed a belief that inevitable OPEC production cuts will create a rebound in the oil market, which will drive the Canadian dollar higher throughout 2019.
Risks to the Canadian dollar include, of course, oil, and the return of global trade tensions. Tensions eased in early December when US and Chinese leaders agreed to suspend tariff increases for 3 months.
Also in December, Citibank offered a “long-term” (>18 months) forecast for USD/CAD of 1.2, representing potential CAD appreciation of 12 percent.
United States Dollar (USD) - Market news and forecasts
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.