This is the current EUR-AUD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market EUR-AUD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the EUR vs AUD, you should pay attention to both Euro and Australian Dollar news and forecasts.
11-January-19: 2018 was a mixed year for the euro. A 4.6 percent loss versus the US dollar and a 3 percent loss versus the franc was offset by a near-6 percent gain versus the Australian dollar and small gains against the pound and Canadian dollar.
Risks to the euro in 2019 will include Brexit, slower economic growth and the Italian budget. The main supporting factor is the end of economic stimulus by the ECB, which may or may not be followed by an interest rate hike later in the year.
Forecasts: For the month of January, SEB recommend betting on euro depreciation versus JPY, SEK and NOK on grounds of seasonality.
In the months ahead, EUR/GBP should weaken from levels in the mid-£0.89s (as of January-11) according to Bank of America, since “all pathways are leading to a soft Brexit” — something that would be a shot in the arm to sterling.
For EUR/USD, both Danske Bank and Bank of America retain end-of-year forecasts of $1.25, from rates at the time of writing in the mid-$1.14s. $1.25 represents the equilibrium exchange rate for this pair, BAML researchers said.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
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