This is the current EUR-USD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market EUR-USD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the EUR vs USD, you should pay attention to both Euro and United States Dollar news and forecasts.
11-January-19: 2018 was a mixed year for the euro. A 4.6 percent loss versus the US dollar and a 3 percent loss versus the franc was offset by a near-6 percent gain versus the Australian dollar and small gains against the pound and Canadian dollar.
Risks to the euro in 2019 will include Brexit, slower economic growth and the Italian budget. The main supporting factor is the end of economic stimulus by the ECB, which may or may not be followed by an interest rate hike later in the year.
Forecasts: For the month of January, SEB recommend betting on euro depreciation versus JPY, SEK and NOK on grounds of seasonality.
In the months ahead, EUR/GBP should weaken from levels in the mid-£0.89s (as of January-11) according to Bank of America, since “all pathways are leading to a soft Brexit” — something that would be a shot in the arm to sterling.
For EUR/USD, both Danske Bank and Bank of America retain end-of-year forecasts of $1.25, from rates at the time of writing in the mid-$1.14s. $1.25 represents the equilibrium exchange rate for this pair, BAML researchers said.
1-January-19: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December before giving up some ground in the final weeks of the year. When 2018 was done, the US Dollar Index had gained 6 percent, making the greenback one of 2018’s best performing currencies; however, it was still worth 7.5 percent less than its 2017 high.
The consensus is for dollar weakness in 2019. Big players have long been skeptical of the Fed’s projected path for interest rates and this skepticism appeared justified when, in December, the Fed lowered its expectations for 2019 hikes due to so-called “cross currents” (China, Brexit, trade wars etc.).
In the aftermath of the Fed’s December meeting, Scotiabank said the dollar was “poised to weaken.”
ING said the dollar “is now overvalued against a host of currencies, particularly those in emerging markets.”
JP Morgan had been dollar-bearish prior to the Fed meeting.
SEB suggested that the dollar might weaken against the pound to $1.37 per GBP, or worse upon very positive Brexit developments.
A CIBC analyst said the dollar would weaken against the Australian dollar from $0.70 per AUD to levels “well north of $0.75,” and perhaps as weak as $0.78.
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