Singapore Dollar - Thai Baht Forecasting
When determining the best time to make a foreign exchange transaction, in this case the SGD vs THB, you should pay attention to the recent market trends for both currencies.
Singapore Dollar (SGD)
At the end of March, Singapore's central bank eased its monetary policy, as widely expected, with the city-state's bellwether economy bracing for a deep recession due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The MAS said it would adopt a zero percent per annum rate of appreciation of the policy band starting at the prevailing level, currently slightly below the mid-point of the policy band.
The markets viewed this annoucement as showing the MAS has kept some fire-power in reserve and could intervene again to lower the SGD.
NAB told Bloomberg TV that it sees a recovery in Asian currencies in the 2nd half of the year if the coronavirus comes under control.
Overall, it was a mixed 2019 for the Singapore dollar, with small gains (<2 percent) against the euro and Australian dollar, but small losses against the US dollar and pound.
Read more in the article SGD Forecasts.
Thai Baht (THB)
The Thai Baht has risen 4% so far this year against the US dollar due to greenback weakness, this won't help with the hoped for tourism lead recovery of the Thai economy post virus.
NAB told Bloomberg TV that it sees a recovery in Asian currencies in the 2nd half of 2020 if the coronavirus comes under control.
In 2018 tourism contributed around 20 percent of Thailand's total GDP, so the dramatic impact to tourism from the coronavirus pandemic is expected to plunge Thailand into a recession.
Recent years have been extremely kind to the baht and 2019 has been no exception. The Thai baht has been the best performing currency in Asia for 2019, the baht rose to a 6-year high against the US dollar (฿30.66) and to a 10-year high against the Australian dollar (฿21.35), as well as to long-term highs against a host of other major currencies.
The baht has previously being supported by Thailand’s large current-account surplus and has benefited from speculation that Thai stocks will soon be assigned a larger weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which would result in significant amounts of foreign capital entering Thailand.