Currency news and forecasts for United States Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs IDR, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah news and forecasts.
United States Dollar (USD) - Market news and forecasts
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) - Market news and forecasts
This year, the rupiah has slid to its lowest levels versus the dollar since 1998.
A USD/IDR rate on October-31 of 15,195 represented a 10.7 percent loss of value for Indonesia’s currency year-to-date. To a lesser extent, the rupiah also lost value against other major currencies.
Rupiah weakness this year has been driven by concerns for global trade and emerging market currency crises in Argentina and Turkey, all of which see capital removed from risky assets and placed into safe havens. The firmer dollar and higher US interest rates also make Indonesia’s foreign loan repayments more expensive.
The Indonesian central bank has raised interest rates several times in 2018 in an attempt to curb currency weakness but this has yet to be effective.
In late October, 12-month forecasts offered by TradingEconomics.com put the rupiah little changed next year, at 15,250 to the dollar and 17,250 to the euro.