This is the current USD-IDR mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-IDR exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs IDR, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah news and forecasts.
In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.
The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.
Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.
In the second week of March, the rupiah experienced its largest one-day loss in 8 months. Indonesia’s currency bore the brunt of a carry trade reversal, fuelled by an increase in investor concerns over global growth after the ECB announced it had cut growth forecasts (other central banks also cut forecasts in early 2019). The rupiah weakened to a 2-month low of 14,305 to the dollar, though this was still nearly 7 percent stronger than lows from October.
A positive resolution to US-China trade talks will likely boost the rupiah. These were ongoing at the time of writing. April's general election adds uncertainty to the currency's outlook.
At the start of the year, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research advised making bets on rupiah appreciation for 2019; he described the rupiah as one of his “top trades” for the year. The rupiah will be strongly supported, the researcher said, once the Fed begins to slow down or pause on US interest rate hikes, likely in the second half of the year.
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