Recent forecasts for the AED to THB exchange rate reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors affecting both currencies. Analysts note that the UAE Dirham (AED) faces potential volatility due to tensions in the Middle East. Following military actions by Israel against Iran on June 13, markets in the region have reacted negatively, leading to increased oil prices, which could have further implications for the AED.
Economic growth projections for the UAE appear optimistic, with reports from the Arab Monetary Fund estimating a 6.2% growth in 2025, driven primarily by sectors such as tourism and international trade. However, challenges remain, particularly in the non-oil sector, where growth has shown signs of stagnation. This paradox of expansion in certain areas while struggling in others may create uncertainty around the Dirham's stability.
In the meantime, the Thai Baht (THB) is facing pressures from escalating trade tensions, particularly following the imposition of a 36% tariff on Thai goods by the U.S. This has influenced sentiment toward emerging Asian currencies, with the THB experiencing a decline alongside other regional currencies. Analysts point out that these developments, combined with recent interest rate cuts by central banks in the region, could dampen expectations for a quick recovery of the THB.
Recent data indicates the AED is trading at 8.8334 against the THB, which is 1.3% below its three-month average of 8.9502. The exchange rate has remained within a stable 4% range, signaling caution among traders. In contrast, oil prices have surged to 70.36 USD, marking a 4.9% rise above its three-month average. The oil market's volatility, with a range fluctuating by over 31%, could further impact both currencies, particularly since the UAE economy is significantly tied to oil revenues.
Overall, analysts suggest that while the AED may benefit from robust growth sectors, geopolitical risks and the performance of oil will be critical in determining its value against the THB in the coming months. Businesses and individuals engaging in currency exchanges may need to remain vigilant to fluctuations driven by these intertwined factors.