Recent developments in the markets have positioned the UAE Dirham (AED) against the Thai baht (THB) under notable pressure. As of mid-June 2025, the AED was trading at approximately 8.9283 THB, marking a 1.3% dip below its three-month average of 9.0453 THB. This recent price reflects a relatively stable trading range over the past three months, oscillating between 8.8170 and 9.4984.
Geopolitical tensions following Israel's military strikes on Iran have contributed to increased volatility in the region, potentially affecting investor confidence and impacting the AED's value. Meanwhile, the Arab Monetary Fund has projected a robust 6.2% economic growth for the UAE in 2025, primarily driven by enhancements in tourism and international trade. However, a decrease in the non-oil sector growth may signal challenges in the diversification of the economy, which could hinder the AED's long-term stability.
The ongoing trade negotiations between the UAE and the U.S. regarding steel and aluminum tariffs may further influence the AED, as favorable outcomes could enhance trade balances. Analysts suggest that these factors, coupled with substantial investments in artificial intelligence, could bolster the AED.
On the other hand, the THB faces pressure due to the imposition of a 36% reciprocal tariff by the U.S. and falling regional currencies amid fears of escalating trade wars. The Thai Baht has faced significant downward pressure, reflecting a broader risk aversion related to emerging Asian currencies.
The effects of rising oil prices cannot be overlooked, as the recent surge in oil to USD prices, now at $77.01—14.3% above its three-month average—may impact both currencies heavily linked to oil revenue. Given that the Thai economy is sensitive to oil price shifts, fluctuations in oil can simultaneously impact both the AED and THB exchange rates.
Overall, currency analysts and market experts indicate that both geopolitical events and underlying economic fundamentals will play crucial roles in shaping the future trajectory of the AED/THB exchange rate. For travelers and businesses engaged in international transactions, close monitoring of these developments will be vital for effective financial planning.