The GBP to NOK exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include a widening interest rate differential, with the Bank of England expected to cut rates to 3.25% by mid-2026, while Norges Bank remains cautious at 4.0%. Additionally, the UK’s economic growth is projected to slow, which could exert downward pressure on the pound. In contrast, Norway's strong fiscal position supported by energy exports remains a stabilizing factor for the krone.
The near-term trading range for GBP/NOK is expected to stay within a stable band, having recently trended just above its three-month average.
Upside risks include a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in UK economic data, which could support the pound. Conversely, a continued decline in oil prices may weaken the krone further, putting downward pressure on the GBP/NOK exchange rate.