GBP/NOK Outlook:
The GBP/NOK pair is likely to decrease, currently trading below its recent average and near the low end of its 3-month range. This movement is driven by concerns over the UK's political climate and cautious monetary policy.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of England is holding rates steady, while Norges Bank is maintaining a cautious approach to future rate cuts, benefiting the NOK.
- Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices, now significantly above their average, support the NOK as it is a major oil exporter, enhancing its appeal.
- One macro factor: UK inflation remains persistent, influencing the Bank of England's cautious stance, which also weighs on the value of the pound.
Range:
The GBP/NOK is expected to drift towards the lower end of its recent range as it lacks strong upward momentum.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A substantial improvement in UK economic data could bolster GBP strength.
- Downside risk: Any further deterioration in the UK's political situation may pressure the GBP lower.