The exchange rate forecast for the Polish zloty (PLN) against the US dollar (USD) has been shaped significantly by recent developments in both currencies. Analysts have noted a prevailing weakness in the USD, driven largely by market expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Recent data indicates that the Fed may ease monetary policy sooner than anticipated, with speculations of cuts beginning as early as March 2026. This shift is exerting downward pressure on the USD, which has recently seen a decline from its peak levels.
Conversely, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) recently announced a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the key interest rate to 4.00%. Governor Adam Glapiński suggested a cautious approach moving forward, amid concerns regarding Poland's budget deficit. Despite this cut, forecasts indicate that the PLN may weaken slightly against the Euro, with predictions pointing to a EUR/PLN rate of around 4.25 over the next year due to economic stagnation and rising fiscal pressures. Political uncertainties, stirred by recent elections, also contribute to lackluster sentiment regarding the zloty.
Current data shows that the PLN/USD exchange rate is at 0.2753, which is slightly above its three-month average. The currency pair has exhibited stability within a narrow range of 3.6%, fluctuating between 0.2694 and 0.2792. This stability may be challenged by the broader trends surrounding the USD's weakening and the PLN's outlook amid local economic and political dynamics.
Overall, experts suggest cautious observation of the zloty as it navigates through a complex landscape influenced by both domestic decisions and external pressures. The interplay of relative interest rates, economic growth signals, and political developments will remain crucial in determining the trajectory of the PLN against the USD in the coming months.
