Bias: range-bound, as the PLN/USD is near the 90-day average and within the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland has maintained a hawkish stance while the Federal Reserve is expected to implement rate cuts, creating pressure on the PLN.
• Risk/commodities: Recent stability in oil prices could support both currencies, but any volatility may favor the USD due to its safe-haven status.
• Economic performance: Poland's forecasted economic growth of over 3.5% in 2026, backed by EU funds, may strengthen the PLN against the USD.
Range: The PLN/USD is likely to drift within its recent range, maintaining stability unless significant driving forces emerge.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise decision by the NBP to raise rates could boost the PLN.
• Downside risk: Weak U.S. labor market data that reinforces expectations for the Fed to ease rates may weaken the USD.