Recent forecasts and market updates suggest a nuanced outlook for the PLN to USD exchange rate. As of late September 2025, the US dollar has shown signs of softening, partly due to a market correction and concerns surrounding overhyped Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, alongside uncertainties stemming from political dynamics, including a recent potential government shutdown. Analysts indicate that, in the absence of significant US data, USD movements are likely to be influenced by broader market trends rather than domestic economic indicators.
On the Polish side, significant developments have emerged affecting the zloty. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) made a notable shift by reducing its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% in May 2025, driven by a decline in inflation to 4.1%. Economists project that this trend will continue, with expectations of further rate cuts potentially weakening the PLN against the USD. Such monetary policy adjustments could stem from ongoing political uncertainties following the election of President Karol Nawrocki, whose administration faces challenges that may impact fiscal stability and the zloty's performance.
Compounding these concerns are ongoing global trade tensions, particularly regarding tariffs imposed on Polish goods in relation to the US, which add to the economic challenges faced by Poland's export-driven market. The interplay between these factors suggests that while the PLN has recently traded near 0.2728 to the USD—just 0.5% below its three-month average—the outlook remains cautious. Experts caution that continued pressure from declining inflation and potential political instability may limit the zloty's strength against the dollar.
Markets are also monitoring the implications of expected US economic data, particularly upcoming inflation figures, as they may sway Federal Reserve policies and indirectly influence the PLN/USD exchange rate. In short, while the PLN currently shows a stable trading range, the combination of easing monetary policy in Poland and uncertainties surrounding US fiscal dynamics will be crucial in determining future movements of the exchange rate.
