PLN/USD Outlook:
The PLN/USD rate is slightly positive but likely to move sideways. It is currently trading just above its 90-day average and within the stable recent range, without a clear driver pushing it higher.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The National Bank of Poland is facing potential losses due to PLN appreciation, which may impact its policy decisions compared to the Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rates.
- Risk/commodities: The increase in safe-haven demand for the USD, prompted by geopolitical tensions, may lend strength to the dollar.
- One macro factor: Moody's recent downgrade of Poland's rating outlook to negative adds to existing uncertainties in the financial environment, which can affect the zloty.
Range:
Expect the PLN/USD to maintain its position within the established trading range.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant improvement in US economic data could strengthen the dollar further.
- Downside risk: Renewed economic concerns in Poland, leading to aggressive monetary easing, could put downward pressure on the zloty.
