The PLN to USD exchange rate currently shows a bearish bias.
Key factors influencing this trend include the interest rate differential, as the National Bank of Poland has cut rates to 4.00%, while the Federal Reserve is also expected to implement additional rate cuts, which could weaken the USD. Additionally, robust GDP growth in Poland supports the złoty, although a potential loss exceeding 30 billion zlotys for the National Bank may create downward pressure.
Expect the exchange rate to trade within a stable range, reflecting recent price data which shows the PLN near 30-day lows at just above its 3-month average.
An upside risk could emerge from stronger-than-expected investment forecasts in Poland, potentially boosting the złoty. Conversely, the downside risk is linked to a significant depreciation of the USD, driven by anticipated monetary policy changes in the U.S., which may lead to increased volatility in the exchange rate during the upcoming months.