USD/PLN Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a neutral stance with potential rate cuts, which may weaken the USD.
• Oil prices are currently below average, potentially impacting the USD negatively as energy prices influence inflation.
• Inflation concerns are present in Poland, but the National Bank of Poland has paused rate cuts, which may support the PLN.
Range: Anticipate the USD/PLN to drift within its recent range, testing the lower end as it lacks strong upward momentum.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report could lead to increased USD strength.
• Downside risk: Escalating geopolitical tensions or a more aggressive stance on tariffs may negatively impact the USD further.