The USD to PLN exchange rate continues to reflect a rangebound performance, underpinned by a complex interplay of local and global economic factors. Currently, the exchange rate stands at 3.6271, only 0.7% below its three-month average of 3.6515. The trading has remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a tight band of 4.1%, from 3.6005 to 3.7468.
Recent forecasts and market updates indicate that the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure as expectations build for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through 2025. Although US inflation has risen to a seven-month high in August, analysts suggest that this has not significantly influenced USD investor sentiment. The forthcoming consumer sentiment index could further shape market attitudes, with even slight negative shifts likely triggering additional USD selling.
In addition, external factors impact the USD's standing. The heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US-China trade negotiations, might have ramifications not only on economic sectors but also on currency markets, adding a layer of uncertainty for USD valuation.
On the Polish side, analysts note a series of developments that may undermine the Polish zloty (PLN) as well. UBS revised its PLN forecasts in September, citing ongoing global trade tensions and political challenges, prompting expectations for the EUR/PLN rate to reach 4.25 through mid-2026. Similarly, the National Bank of Poland's recent rate cuts, prompted by declining inflation and weaker economic data, have contributed to the PLN's depreciation, creating market apprehension about future monetary policy shifts.
Furthermore, with political uncertainty stemming from recent election outcomes and declining economic indicators — including underwhelming retail sales and industrial production — the PLN's outlook appears increasingly dovish. Analysts are now speculating about further rate cuts from the NBP, which could weigh on the zloty's fortunes in the near term.
Overall, with current dynamics suggesting a challenging landscape for both currencies, monitoring ongoing developments in inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical events will be crucial for individuals and businesses navigating international transactions involving USD and PLN.
