The exchange rate forecast for the USD to PLN remains cautious in light of recent developments affecting both currencies. The USD has been under pressure due to a prevailing risk-on mood among investors, as well as expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in 2026. Recent economic data from the US has been mixed, showing indications of slowing growth while maintaining a resilient labor market. This combination has led analysts to predict further weakness for the dollar, especially as market sentiment rotates towards riskier assets.
Current USD/PLN levels are at 60-day lows around 3.6102, which is approximately 1.0% below the three-month average of 3.6471. The currency pair has displayed remarkable stability, oscillating within a narrow range of 3.6%. Given the anticipated Fed rate cuts and potential soft inflation, there is a consensus that these factors will continue to exert downward pressure on the USD.
On the other hand, the Polish zloty (PLN) is also facing challenges. The National Bank of Poland recently cut interest rates, reflecting low inflation and a cautious monetary policy stance. The zloty is expected to weaken slightly, with forecasts suggesting it may retreat to around 4.25 per euro over the next 12 months, mainly due to economic stagnation and increasing fiscal pressures in Poland. Political uncertainties following the recent presidential elections add another dimension of risk for the zloty.
Analysts have noted that while the zloty had exhibited some strength, the interplay of domestic challenges and broader European economic factors may limit its ability to capitalize on any potential weakness in the dollar. In a context where both currencies face pressures, future movements in the USD to PLN exchange rate will likely be influenced heavily by developments in US monetary policy, inflation metrics, and ongoing geopolitical risks.
