The USD to PLN exchange rate has recently been influenced by a confluence of factors affecting both currencies, resulting in a stable trading band around 3.6354, which is just below its three-month average. Analysts note that the dollar has been under pressure due to a risk-on sentiment in the market, driven by expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as mid-2026. This environment has diminished the USD's yield advantage, causing it to drift lower amid mixed economic signals from the United States. While data has shown signs of slowing growth, a resilient labor market keeps the Fed cautious, creating an uncertain outlook for the USD.
In parallel, the Polish zloty faces its own challenges following the National Bank of Poland's recent interest rate cut to 4.00%. The central bank's governor has indicated a "wait-and-see" approach, citing concerns over Poland’s high budget deficit, which may limit future monetary policy flexibility. Additionally, analysts from a recent Reuters poll project a minor weakening of the zloty in 2026 due to economic stagnation and fiscal pressures. Political uncertainties following the election of President Karol Nawrocki also contribute to apprehensions regarding the zloty’s stability.
Moreover, experts suggest that the backdrop of improved risk sentiment globally, along with a potential softening of US inflation data, may support a weaker USD overall. As markets stabilize and geopolitical tensions ease, the USD may continue to experience downward pressure, while the zloty could face challenges stemming from both economic and political factors in the upcoming months.
Overall, the USD/PLN exchange rate is expected to remain range-bound, with movements influenced by the upcoming US economic data releases, potential shifts in Fed communication, and the evolving economic landscape in Poland.
