Recent forecasts and currency market updates indicate a bearish outlook for the USD/PLN exchange rate, primarily driven by ongoing expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar has struggled against a backdrop of mixed economic data, with many analysts suggesting that a dovish Fed approach will narrow interest-rate differentials, leading to a weaker dollar. This week's jobless claims data failed to lend significant support to the USD, and traders are increasingly betting on a series of rate cuts beginning in early 2026. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated from its previous highs, reflecting diminished demand for the dollar amid a stabilizing global risk sentiment and improved conditions in major currencies such as the euro and the pound.
In contrast, the Polish zloty has recently experienced pressure after the National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut its key policy rate amid softer inflation figures. Analysts suggest that a lack of clear direction from the NBP may lead to a stable yet cautious outlook for the zloty in the near term. Furthermore, concerns regarding the fiscal landscape and political uncertainties following the recent presidential election could hinder the zloty’s potential recovery. Forecasts indicate a slight weakening of the zloty, with predictions suggesting it may reach approximately 4.25 per euro over the next year due to these domestic challenges.
As of now, the USD/PLN rate stands at 3.6364, slightly below its three-month average and reflecting a narrow trading range of just 3.6% over the past months. Analysts warn that unless there are significant shifts in US economic data or a change in the current trajectory of Poland's fiscal and political situation, the dollar may continue to face downward pressure against the zloty in the forthcoming weeks.
