The USD to PLN exchange rate has recently reached 90-day lows near 3.5791, which is 1.8% below its three-month average of 3.6429. This decline is indicative of broader market trends, which show a prevailing weakness in the US dollar against other currencies. Analysts note that the USD's downward trajectory is largely driven by expectations of aggressive monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, as market participants anticipate rate cuts beginning as early as March-June 2026.
The recent consumer price index revealed a softening US inflation rate, dropping from 3% to 2.7%, heightening speculation for further Fed actions. This dovish outlook, combined with mixed US economic data—including signs of slowing growth but a resilient labor market—suggests that downward pressure on the dollar is likely to continue in the near term.
In contrast, the Polish zloty (PLN) is benefitting from a series of positive developments. The National Bank of Poland initiated a cautious easing cycle with a recent rate cut and is expected to continue this trend if inflation remains controlled. Inflation figures for November came in at 2.4%, closely aligning with the central bank's target. This stability supports the PLN against the backdrop of USD weakness.
Moreover, forecasts from UBS suggest a more optimistic outlook for the zloty, anticipating stability around 4.25 EUR/PLN through the second quarter of 2026. This positive sentiment is further bolstered by a projected loss for the National Bank of Poland due to the zloty's appreciation against major currencies, which is viewed as a sign of strength and reflects the PLN's resilience.
Given these conditions, the USD to PLN exchange rate is likely to remain volatile within a range bound between 3.5791 to 3.7114 as traders react to upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications. Currency experts stress the importance of monitoring inflation prints and Fed statements closely as they will be crucial in determining future movements in this exchange rate.
