This is the current AUD-CHF mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-CHF exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs CHF, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc news and forecasts.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
9-January-19: In January, the Swiss National Bank re-affirmed its commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy, which includes negative interest rates and a willingness to intervene in FX markets to weaken the “highly valued” franc if necessary.
Since bouncing off the symbolic level of Fr1.2 in April, the franc has strengthened by 7 percent against the euro, to levels in the low Fr1.12s.
With Brexit and Italian budgetary concerns weighing on other European major currencies, traders favoured the franc in the months leading up to this report; it was also favoured on the back of increased haven demand amid falling stock prices and signs that the global economy is slowing down.
Any decline in EUR/CHF to Fr1.1 will be met by significant support, said UBS in late 2018. This, the bank says, is the level that will spur SNB intervention.
UBS is forecasting a slightly weaker franc by mid-2019, at Fr1.15 to the euro. Scotiabank forecasts the same rate but by year-end.
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