This is the current AUD-TRY mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market AUD-TRY exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the AUD vs TRY, you should pay attention to both Australian Dollar and Turkish Lira news and forecasts.
17-January-19: The Australian dollar recovered strongly following a "flash crash" in early January which saw it briefly trade at a 10-year low of 67.4 US cents.
By the time of this report, AUD/USD was back at 72 cents and roughly in line with December’s median exchange rate. The Aussie was similarly strong against other major currencies following its mini crash.
Several months ago, most analysts agreed that the Aussie was heading higher in 2019, but things have changed. In recent months, investors have become increasingly certain that no increase to Australian interest rates will be seen until 2020; there is, in fact, now a 25 percent chance of an RBA cut, per derivatives pricing. Inaction on interest rates will force capital away from Australia and towards countries where rates are higher or are expected to increase.
One senior researcher at BNP Paribas said in January that the Australian dollar would “get absolutely crucified and could suffer a 25-30 percent [long-term] fall.”
In opposition to that view, at least relative to the US dollar, was a CIBC analyst, who said that at current levels the Aussie was “very undervalued” and was his “best bet” for 2019. The analyst’s view was based upon there being a positive resolution to the US-China trade spat. The Aussie could be worth as much as 78 US cents in the second half of 2019, the analyst said.
10-December-2018: The lira stabilized in the fourth quarter, albeit at relatively low levels, thanks to tighter monetary policy at Turkey’s central bank. The lira experienced a full-on crisis mid-year.
Between January and August 13th, the lira lost nearly half its value (46 percent to be precise). On December 10th, at a rate of 5.325 to the US dollar, the lira’s loss for the year was down to 29 percent.
There are a host of reasons for the lira's weakness in 2018; these include high inflation, which remains above 20 percent, a deterioration in Washington-Ankara relations, threats to global trade from this year’s US-China trade tensions, and the strong dollar and firmer US yields, which make foreign loan repayments more expensive.
The lira will weaken to 5.75 per dollar by the end of 2019, a Commerzbank analyst said in December. A moderation in inflation will prompt a reduction in interest rates, the analyst believes, and this will not be viewed favourably by investors.
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