Currency news and forecasts for British Pound Sterling and Canadian Dollar
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the GBP vs CAD, you should pay attention to both British Pound Sterling and Canadian Dollar news and forecasts.
British Pound Sterling (GBP) - Market news and forecasts
10-December-18: UK politics was in a state of disarray in December and a no-deal Brexit was looking ever more likely. As a result, sterling struck a 20-month low against the dollar ($1.251) and a 3-1/2-month low against the euro (€1.1). Against each of its peers, sterling had been worth 17 percent more prior to the UK’s EU referendum in June 2016.
The Bank of England has predicted a shocking 25 percent loss in the pound’s value in the event of a “disorderly” no-deal Brexit, under which there will be serious border delays and a marked loss of confidence in Britain’s financial institutions.
In the more likely event of a milder, “disruptive” no-deal Brexit, under which goods face tariffs but flow somewhat easily, sterling still loses 15 percent, the BoE believes.
How likely is no-deal? It’s highly likely unless Prime Minister May achieves a time-limited backstop; British MPs will not accept much else. This will be difficult for May to achieve — EU negotiators have already said that their previous offer was the last and only offer — and little time remains, with Brexit scheduled for March-29.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Market news and forecasts
5-December-18: In early December, the Canadian dollar traded at C$1.34 per USD — its weakest level in 18 months. It did so after traders revised down their expectations for future Canadian interest rate hikes following a dovish Bank of Canada meeting.
Also not helping the loonie in late 2018 has been the oil price which, by the time of this report, had slumped 30 percent from 2018 highs. Oil is Canada’s largest export.
In December, several FX analysts expressed a belief that inevitable OPEC production cuts will create a rebound in the oil market, which will drive the Canadian dollar higher throughout 2019.
Risks to the Canadian dollar include, of course, oil, and the return of global trade tensions. Tensions eased in early December when US and Chinese leaders agreed to suspend tariff increases for 3 months.
Also in December, Citibank offered a “long-term” (>18 months) forecast for USD/CAD of 1.2, representing potential CAD appreciation of 12 percent.