Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the GBP vs EUR, you should pay attention to both British Pound Sterling and Euro news and forecasts.
10-December-18: UK politics was in a state of disarray in December and a no-deal Brexit was looking ever more likely. As a result, sterling struck a 20-month low against the dollar ($1.251) and a 3-1/2-month low against the euro (€1.1). Against each of its peers, sterling had been worth 17 percent more prior to the UK’s EU referendum in June 2016.
The Bank of England has predicted a shocking 25 percent loss in the pound’s value in the event of a “disorderly” no-deal Brexit, under which there will be serious border delays and a marked loss of confidence in Britain’s financial institutions.
In the more likely event of a milder, “disruptive” no-deal Brexit, under which goods face tariffs but flow somewhat easily, sterling still loses 15 percent, the BoE believes.
How likely is no-deal? It’s highly likely unless Prime Minister May achieves a time-limited backstop; British MPs will not accept much else. This will be difficult for May to achieve — EU negotiators have already said that their previous offer was the last and only offer — and little time remains, with Brexit scheduled for March-29.
The euro is heading higher, experts said in November.
Increasingly, complications over Brexit are seen to be a UK problem; less so for the euro area.
With this in mind, and despite disappointing economic data of late, Citibank is confident of a long-term move in EUR/USD to $1.3, from $1.139 at the time of this report (November-21). “Underpinned by the less accommodative policies of the ECB,” the euro will most likely achieve this target, which represents a 14 percent gain, before the end of 2019, Citi has said.
Relative to the pound, the euro had recovered in the days leading up to this report into the £0.89s, from the mid-£0.86s. With political turmoil in the UK, there is room for the exchange rate to reach £0.92 in the months ahead, a Nordea Markets analyst believes. A return to £0.92 would take EUR/GBP back to levels not seen since September 2017.
For EUR/CHF, which averaged Fr1.137 in the weeks leading up to this report, a 5.5 percent rise to Fr1.2 is due sometime within the next 6-12 months, per analysts at Danske Bank.
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