This is the current GBP-EUR mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market GBP-EUR exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the GBP vs EUR, you should pay attention to both British Pound Sterling and Euro news and forecasts.
Update 14-April: The pound hovered between US$1.30 and US$1.31 (in line with 3-month averages) after the EU granted the UK a Brexit extension until the end of October. No-deal risk is gone for now and anything is possible, including a new British prime minister, a general election and/or second referendum.
Experts at MUFG said in April that sterling would likely trade between US$1.30 and US$1.34 until more clarity emerged.
If an election is called, the pound could depreciate to US$1.24, a UBS analyst said, due to “heightened uncertainty” (the opposition Labour party is consistently ahead in the polls).
Goldman Sachs said in April that sterling was set for a “big finish” (higher) once the gridlock in the UK parliament ends and a deal is agreed and certainty found.
Earlier this year, currency analysts at HSBC estimated that the pound would be valued at levels near US$1.10 in the event of no-deal, near US$1.45 with a deal and at US$1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.
Against the dollar, the euro remains weak. At $1.12 in early April, the euro was barely above March’s 21-month low of $1.118. Against the pound, it traded at £0.86 (a level it never sank to in 2018), but it fared better against the Australian dollar, with EUR/AUD rates in line with 2018’s average, at A$1.578.
Euro weakness has been driven by Brexit uncertainties and has followed March’s meeting of the ECB, at which the central bank said it will not raise interest rates until 2020 as part of an effort to lift the eurozone economy out of this “period of continued [economic] weakness.”
Forecasts: ING analysts wrote in March that they expect the low-yielding euro to continue to depreciate against USD over the coming months; ANZ said it saw rates falling as low as $1.08 by mid-year; Danske Bank said the euro would trade between $1.12 and 1.16 at year-end.
For EUR/GBP, Nordea Research thinks a no-deal Brexit will put £0.95 in play, a Norway-type Brexit (“Norway plus”) or permanent customs union will lead to £0.81-0.83, and Theresa May’s deal should see £0.83-0.84.
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