This is the current GBP-USD mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market GBP-USD exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the GBP vs USD, you should pay attention to both British Pound Sterling and United States Dollar news and forecasts.
Update 14-April: The pound hovered between US$1.30 and US$1.31 (in line with 3-month averages) after the EU granted the UK a Brexit extension until the end of October. No-deal risk is gone for now and anything is possible, including a new British prime minister, a general election and/or second referendum.
Experts at MUFG said in April that sterling would likely trade between US$1.30 and US$1.34 until more clarity emerged.
If an election is called, the pound could depreciate to US$1.24, a UBS analyst said, due to “heightened uncertainty” (the opposition Labour party is consistently ahead in the polls).
Goldman Sachs said in April that sterling was set for a “big finish” (higher) once the gridlock in the UK parliament ends and a deal is agreed and certainty found.
Earlier this year, currency analysts at HSBC estimated that the pound would be valued at levels near US$1.10 in the event of no-deal, near US$1.45 with a deal and at US$1.55 if Brexit is cancelled.
In the final week of April, the Dollar Index smashed through a major resistance point at 97.70 and broke towards a 2-year high of 98.25. The index was up 2 percent year-to-date and was 11 percent higher than 2018’s low.
2019’s dollar gains have come chiefly at the expense of the euro, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, which all trade at or near multi-year lows. USD is also inflicting pain on the Australian dollar and other important currencies.
The greenback’s 2019 strength has come in spite of a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve, which said in March it expects no interest rate increase this year. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and many other central banks have also turned dovish, removing any incentive for selling USD.
Scotiabank admitted defeat in April when it said that the dollar was likely to be “stronger for longer.” It had long held a bearish view on the dollar.
Bloomberg Research warned in April of potential for a large dollar move, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in April at a 5-year low.
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