Currency news and forecasts for United States Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs HKD, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar news and forecasts.
United States Dollar (USD) - Market news and forecasts
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.
Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) - Market news and forecasts
2018 has been a good year for the Hong Kong dollar, as it has been for the US dollar, to which it is pegged.
Entering the third week of November 2018, HKD’s year-to-date gains over six of the seven non-USD majors averaged 5.4 percent. HKD was unchanged against the yen.
At different times in 2018, HKD has benefitted from Brexit uncertainty in Europe, from inactivity on monetary policy in Oceania, and a recent collapse in the oil market, which saw its value rise against petro-currencies.
Seasonality becomes an important supporting factor for HKD approaching year-end, and especially in November. Since 2010, HKD has averaged trade-weighted gains of 1.8 percent in November and 0.2 percent in December.
By way of its USD forecasts, Citibank said in September that HKD would gain 3-4 percent over a 6-12-month period; however, gains would be followed by an 11 percent loss in the long term.
Like Citi, ING remain long-term bearish on USD and HKD. ING isn't ruling out interventions from Washington aimed at weakening the greenback. President Trump clearly would like a far weaker currency.
J.P. Morgan said in November that USD and HKD would be worth slightly more in the first half of 2019, before weakening slightly in the second half of the year.