Currency news and forecasts for United States Dollar and Thai Baht
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs THB, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Thai Baht news and forecasts.
United States Dollar (USD) - Market news and forecasts
14-December-18: Against a basket of currencies, the US dollar struck an 18-month high in mid-December after negative political and economic developments weighed on rest-of-the-world currencies. At the time of writing, the dollar was showing trade-weighted appreciation of 6 percent for 2018 and was on course to gain in 10 of the year’s 12 months.
The dollar had strengthened to levels near $1.13 against the euro, which suffered due to disappointing eurozone economic data and Brexit-related uncertainties.
Brexit allowed the dollar to gain handsomely against the pound in 2018. On December-11, GBP/USD traded below 1.25 for the first time since early 2017.
The economic slowdown in China has also helped the dollar by creating safe haven flows into the US. The dollar has yet to reach the magic 7-yuan level but remains close to it, at levels near 6.9.
For 2019, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are both bearish the greenback. The banks remain skeptical over future Fed interest rate hikes and point to a possible US economic downturn in the second half of the year.
Scotiabank is forecasting EUR/USD at $1.30 by 2019 year-end, indicating a potential 13 percent decline in the dollar’s buying power.
Thai Baht (THB) - Market news and forecasts
Entering the third week of October, the baht is one of the best performing currencies of the year, being unchanged against the US dollar, at a level of ฿32.50, and having gained more than 4 percent and 9 percent against the euro (฿37.50) and Australian dollar (฿23.20) respectively.
The baht’s overall performance in 2018 shines relative to its peers, many of which have lost considerable value due to this year’s emerging market currency crises and massive amounts of US protectionism, which threatens global trade.
With Thailand soon likely to announce its first interest rate hike since 2011 (in September, two of the Bank of Thailand’s seven decision makers voted to hike), the outlook for the baht in the months ahead remains good and further strength should not be a surprise.