The USD to NZD exchange rate currently maintains a bearish bias, primarily influenced by expectations of future U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and changing economic dynamics.
Key drivers include:
- The anticipated shift in U.S. monetary policy suggests that three rate cuts may be implemented by mid-2026, which should weaken the USD.
- Conversely, the New Zealand economy is facing potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but a more stable global growth outlook may support the NZD.
- Analysts project a recovery for the NZD in 2026, driven by improved risk sentiment and a weaker USD.
Over the next 1–3 months, the USD to NZD rate is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting the current price levels. Upside risks could arise from strengthening commodity prices boosting the NZD, while downside risks include unexpected resilience in U.S. economic indicators that could support the USD.