USD/NZD Outlook:
The USD/NZD is likely to decrease as it currently trades below its recent average and near recent lows. The combination of US tariff uncertainties and weak NZD economic indicators adds downward pressure.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, strengthening the USD, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has indicated that rate hikes may not occur until late 2026.
- Risk/commodities: Recent declines in dairy prices have negatively impacted New Zealand's primary export sector, thus weakening the NZD.
- One macro factor: The US trade dynamics reveal a widening trade deficit, increasing pressure on the USD as imports outpace exports.
Range:
Expect the USD/NZD to drift within its recent range, with potential to test lower levels.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A shift towards a more favorable economic outlook for New Zealand may boost the NZD.
- Downside risk: Further escalations in US tariffs could dent the USD and increase market volatility.